183
FXUS62 KTAE 030821
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
421 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level ridging situated on top of rich tropical moisture
will continue through today. High pressure will slide down the
eastern seaboard with east-southeast surface flow with a rich theta
boundary along its axis, serving as a weak boundary to initiate
storms this afternoon. PoP`s will generally max out around 70%,
particularly in our FL counties where the seabreeze will be
strongest, given that storms are expected to remain quite isolated.

A muggy airmass will be in place resulting in heat indices >100,
though a heat advisory will not be issued as thunderstorm coverage
and anvil debris should keep the area below the 108 threshold.
However, temperatures will still be quite hot across the area so
make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and limit
time outside in the sun.

High temperatures areawide will reach the low to mid 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level ridging will hold through the period, before beginning
to flatten late Friday into Saturday morning. This is due to a
shortwave trough developing in the upper midwest and then tracking
through the Great Lakes. Until then, expect hot days, with highs
in the low to mid 90s and heat indicies around 103-110 in SE AL
and SW GA and 105-113 in FL. Heat Advisories look possible,
especially with the warmer airmass in place. The question keeps
these at bay is the scattered to possible widespread nature of
showers and thunderstorms. Even if advisories are not in place,
heat illness and exhaustion can happen fast. Make sure you`re
ready to beat the heat by visiting weather.gov/heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A frontal boundary should pass or stall just to our north
over the weekend, which combined with our moist airmass and the
seabreeze could lead to scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy rain and gusty winds look to be the primary
threats with any storms that form. Upper level ridging over the
Atlantic looks to extend into the southeast for the beginning of
the week. Flow should be south to southeasterly, supporting land
and seabreeze convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through around
09z before visibilities and ceilings begin to drop at all sites
excluding KECP. IFR to occasionally LIFR ceilings are possible,
particularly at KDHN and KABY. VFR conditions should resume around
13z, though KABY could hang on to at least MVFR through 14-15z. VCTS
will begin around 18z across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of
the week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through today and
tomorrow, with activity generally greatest during the overnight
and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is
at its peak. Long period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive
late Friday into Saturday and linger over the weekend.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The wet pattern will continue as a moist and unstable airmass
remains overhead with RH values generally remaining above 50%
areawide over the next few days. Fire weather concerns remain low at
this time other than low dispersions across the FL Big Bend and
easternmost portions of our SW GA counties.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area
through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers
and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not
expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be
possible across the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  76  94  76 /  70  30  60  20
Panama City   90  77  90  79 /  60  20  40  10
Dothan        93  75  93  76 /  50  20  50  10
Albany        92  75  92  76 /  60  20  50  10
Valdosta      92  75  94  76 /  60  30  50  20
Cross City    93  75  94  75 /  70  40  60  20
Apalachicola  88  79  89  79 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield