210
FXUS01 KWBC 021924
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 03 2024 - 00Z Fri Jul 05 2024

...A dangerous heatwave to continue across portions of the
Southwest into California and from the Southern Plains into the
South...

...Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible
over the next few days across portions of the Plains, Lower
Missouri Valley and Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley...


Two strong upper level highs, one stretching from the Southern
Plains into the South and another building along the West coast
will be the drivers for the continuation of a dangerous heatwave
across much of California into the Southwest and from the Southern
Plains into the South.  Excessive Heat warnings and heat
advisories are currently in effect across these regions where the
combination of hot temperatures and high relative humidities will
produce potentially major to extreme heat impacts over the next
few days.  Record high temperatures are possible through the
interior valleys of California over the next few days, with the
potentially record heat then expected to expand into the Pacific
Northwest by the end of this week and weekend.  While there are
not expected to be many record high temperatures with the Southern
Plains to South portion of the heatwave, much more numerous record
warm minimum temperatures are possible across these areas,
exacerbating the effects of the heatwave as there is less chance
to cool off significantly at night.  Currently over 80 million
people are under some form of heat warning or advisory across the
nation, with this number likely to remain near this level or
increase as we go into the middle and later part of the holiday
week.

In addition to the heat risks across portions of California, the
Southwest and the Southern Plains with the ongoing heatwave, fire
risks will also be threat across these areas given the combination
of hot temperatures, low relative humidities and very low chances
of any precipitation.

While much of the country will see temperatures above average over
the next few days, areas from the Northern Rockies into the
Northern and Central Plains will see cooler than average
temperatures.  High temperatures across these regions are forecast
to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average.

While heat will keep a gripe on large portions of the West and
South, stormy weather will continue across portions of the Plains
into the Lower Missouri Valley and Middle to Upper Mississippi
Valley.  An initial round of heavy rains, flash flooding potential
and severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect areas from the
Upper Great Lakes into the Upper to Middle Mississippi Valleys and
Lower Missouri Valley late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night/early hours of Wednesday.  This will be followed by
potential for another round of active thunderstorms to push east
Wednesday afternoon from the Central Plains and into the Lower
Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys Wednesday night into the early
hours of Thursday.  Soil moisture values are above average across
the Upper to Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Missouri Valley
regions from rains over the past several weeks,  leading to
increasing flash flood risk as multiple rounds of additional heavy
rains push across these regions over the next two days.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$