954
FXUS65 KSLC 022131
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
331 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and gusty conditions will result in locally critical
fire weather conditions, particularly for portions of southern
and eastern Utah Wednesday and Thursday. Increased ridging through
the Great Basin then results in continued dry conditions and a
warming trend from the weekend into next week, with heat
potentially rising to hazardous levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Afternoon GOES-W water
vapor loop showing dry west to northwesterly flow remaining atop
the forecast region as axis of troughing shifts east into the
Plains. As a result, cooler H7 temperatures associated with the
pattern are helping to keep temperatures this afternoon below
seasonal normal for much of the region, with the exception being
portions of southern Utah which are running near to a bit above
normal. With moisture quite limited (PWATs areawide less than
0.50"), the region remains devoid of precipitation and cloud cover
is largely limited to some terrain driven cumulus.

On Wednesday, another weak shortwave impulse will work into and
through the area. With moisture still very limited, precipitation
is not anticipated. This shortwave will however help keep
temperatures near to below normal across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming, and bring about some marginally gusty
conditions across portions of the area, most noted in areas
favored to downslope in northwesterly flow. That said, this will
primarily be impactful in a fire weather sense, as combination of
these gusts and low relative humidity values will yield locally
critical fire weather conditions, particularly in portions of
southern and eastern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday), Issued 342 AM MDT...Another
July cool dry frontal passage mid week will leave temperatures
split across Utah Thursday. High temperatures are forecast 5 to 10
degrees below seasonal normals for July 4th across northern Utah
with very comfortable mid 70 degree temperatures by the late
evening hours. But then if we change over to southern and eastern
Utah we look at the other side of the boundary where hot and drier
conditions persist. Here, we don`t see much change in the
forecast day to day. Speaking of hot in southern Utah,
temperatures will closely be monitored Sunday through Tuesday with
a high temperature range between 111 and 115 degrees in St.
George currently being forecast. It is pretty tough to find any
chances for precipitation in this longer range forecast in the
region. Moisture is looking to skirt around the ridge of high
pressure that is expected to set up across our area and instead
impact areas to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds will transition to light and
southeasterly around 03-04z, becoming light and variable at times
overnight. Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will remain fairly
diurnally-driven today and tonight, with a slight preference for
westerly winds around 5-15kts this afternoon. Stronger westerly
winds will develop Wednesday afternoon, with gusts to 25kts
possible. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A general west to northwest flow aloft remains atop
the area, helping maintain somewhat seasonal temperatures.
Additionally, pattern continues to support dry conditions and
somewhat enhanced winds and gusts, the combination of which appear
to be sufficient for critical fire weather conditions across
portions of southern and eastern Utah Wednesday and Thursday. From
the weekend and on into next week, a strengthening ridge of high
pressure will yield a warming trend in addition to continued dry
conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     UTZ489.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...NDeSmet
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity