621
FXUS64 KSJT 021032
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
532 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U.S. will
continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. Another
hot day is in store with highs in the upper 90s to near 106. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for much of the Concho Valley and Big
Country this afternoon and early evening where temperatures between
104 and 106 are forecast. South winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph,
with higher gusts, by mid to late morning. Expect overnight lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...Hot Fourth of July Followed By a Pattern Change for the
Weekend...

The upper-level high that has persisted over the southern Plains for
the past few days should start to shift eastward by Wednesday.  This
is partly due to the approach of a broad upper trough from the
western US. Heights will be around 594 dam, while 850mb temperatures
look to be in the 20-23 deg C range Wednesday and Thursday.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the 100-103 degree
range, but humidity levels could push the heat indices to around
105.  The HeatRisk tool shows a Major to Extreme category for
Wednesday and Thursday.  This is concerning for anyone who will be
outside celebrating the Independence Day holiday.

By the end of the week, models show the upper trough and a surface
cold front dropping into the region. Chances for rain and
thunderstorms will increase for Friday and Saturday as the front
stalls across the region.  The models have steadily showed this
feature coming more into focus, which increases confidence that
thunderstorms should occur.  Additional chances for rain may occur
during the first half of next week as the upper trough persists.
During this time, rainfall amounts will be largely driven by storm
mode and location. If nothing else, the increased clouds and rain
chances should bring some relief from the oppressive heat for a few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Patchy stratus has developed across the Hill Country, but expect
the cloud cover to remain south of the TAF sites. Overall, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail. South winds will increase to
10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts, by mid to late morning. Expect
winds to decrease to 12 knots or less this evening.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 105  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   101  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  101  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 104  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       99  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Coke-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels