364
FXUS64 KSJT 080752
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
252 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through
Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane
Center to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday
morning, and then move north and weaken to a tropical storm by 7 PM
Monday. With this setup, our area will be under generally north to
northwest flow aloft tonight and Monday. This evening, an embedded
disturbance in the northwest flow aloft is forecast to move into
northwest Texas, and help to initiate showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms should move or develop
south/southeast into the Big Country later this evening into
tonight. Not seeing much of an indication for the showers and storms
to persist overnight however, with the aforementioned disturbance
weakening. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an
upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central
Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day
Monday. Our area will have increased cloud cover overnight and
Monday morning, but skies should become partly cloudy especially
over our western counties in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a
little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler
in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the
mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the
Northern Edwards Plateau. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Monday in our northern and central
counties, but confidence is limited in occurrence and placement.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Main upper level ridge will remain parked across the western US
through much of the upcoming week, only slowly drifting a little
farther east By late week and into the weekend. Upper level trough
axis and the remnants of Beryl will be off to the east, so upper
level support for any convection will be a little limited. Still,
plenty of moisture in place in an area far enough away from the
center of the ridge that capping will be limited as well. Expect
storms to develop along any residual boundaries through Friday,
with the best chances across the I-10 corridor east into the Hill
Country. Otherwise, after the slightly cooler conditions today,
temperatures will begin to inch up on Tuesday and then start to
approach the 100 degree mark across portions of the area by the
weekend. Give the ridge axis location expected for the weekend
(centered across Utah and Colorado), areas across the Big Country
likely to be the favored area for the hottest temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered showers will continue impacting KABI the next couple of
hours before dissipating. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are possible
near daybreak. These ceilings should lift to VFR by the afternoon.
Finally, a cold front will move through in the morning switching
winds out of the east-northeast at 10-15 knots. A few showers and
storms may accompany the front but confidence is too low to
include a mention in this TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  69  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
San Angelo  93  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
Junction    91  71  93  71 /  10  10  30  10
Brownwood   87  69  92  68 /  30  10  10   0
Sweetwater  85  68  92  69 /  30  20  10   0
Ozona       93  70  92  70 /  10  30  30  10
Brady       88  70  91  70 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42