Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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194 FXUS64 KSJT 081657 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1157 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Added isolated shower and thunderstorms to southern sections today, in association with the cold front. Also MCS in the Permian Basin may move southeast into Crockett county in NW flow aloft. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed across the area last night have pretty much dissipated. Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl has made landfall this morning near Matagorda Bay. Regional radar mosaic shows a far western band of showers displaced from the core of the hurricane moving westward toward San Saba County. Have a slight chance of PoPs there this morning to account for this activity. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area this morning. Northerly flow at the surface will be reinforced as the remnants of Beryl pass us by to the east. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with numerous outflow boundaries in place. Hi res guidance, however, isn`t particularly bullish on convective development later today so overall confidence in widespread shower and storm activity is low. Otherwise, temperatures should be cooler compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid 80s in the Big Country to the lower to mid 90s across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Main upper level ridge will remain parked across the western US through much of the upcoming week, only slowly drifting a little farther east By late week and into the weekend. Upper level trough axis and the remnants of Beryl will be off to the east, so upper level support for any convection will be a little limited. Still, plenty of moisture in place in an area far enough away from the center of the ridge that capping will be limited as well. Expect storms to develop along any residual boundaries through Friday, with the best chances across the I-10 corridor east into the Hill Country. Otherwise, after the slightly cooler conditions today, temperatures will begin to inch up on Tuesday and then start to approach the 100 degree mark across portions of the area by the weekend. Give the ridge axis location expected for the weekend (centered across Utah and Colorado), areas across the Big Country likely to be the favored area for the hottest temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Scattered MVFR ceiling will become VFR around 18Z today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be too sparse to included in terminals. Northeast winds may gust to 18 KTS this afternoon behind a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 68 92 70 / 30 10 0 0 San Angelo 93 71 95 72 / 20 20 20 10 Junction 91 72 93 72 / 20 10 20 10 Brownwood 87 68 93 68 / 30 0 0 0 Sweetwater 85 69 93 71 / 30 10 10 0 Ozona 93 71 91 70 / 20 30 30 10 Brady 88 70 92 71 / 20 0 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...04