022
FXUS64 KSJT 060922
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
422 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Cooler today, with isolated to scattered convection possible
this afternoon...

Low level flow will be from the east/southeast today, which will
result in cooler temperatures across the area. In fact,
temperatures today will be near or slightly below normal for this
time of year, with afternoon highs mainly the lower 90s, although
a few mid 90s will occur across the Concho Valley. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible primarily
this afternoon during peak heating, with the best chance across
our southern counties. Convection will end by early evening, with
dry conditions expected overnight. Lows tonight will be in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Rain chances will decrease late Saturday before making a return late
Sunday into Monday as a potential upper level shortwave and weak
front move near the area. Rain chances look better to our north for
this system, but our area (mainly the northern counties) could see
some rain Sunday into Monday.

Now for the updated information on Beryl...The current NHC forecast
has Beryl making landfall early Monday just to the south of Corpus
Christi. Recent model trends are taking the remnants of Beryl on a
more northeast track compared to previous runs, keeping most of the
rainfall to the east of our forecast area. PoPs have been decreased
from the last forecast package to align with the new forecast track
and the lower rainfall potential. With this shift in the track, we
also see a shift to warmer temperatures. Without the rain and
extensive cloud cover from Beryl and the increased subsidence on its
western side, temperatures will likely be warmer than with the
previous, more western, track. However, northerly winds on the
western side of the low will help keep temperatures a little lower
for Tuesday and Wednesday than they otherwise would be, before
winds switch back to the south. There is still a chance that Beryl
could bring rain to our area, but it looks less likely with every
model run.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. The main concern will
be the possibility of afternoon convection, primarily across the
far southern terminals. Based on latest model guidance, will
maintain PROB30 groups for KJCT, KBBD and KSOA after 20Z where
highest confidence exists. Otherwise, expect dry conditions, with
light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  73  98  70 /  20  10   0  30
San Angelo  95  73 101  74 /  30  20   0  10
Junction    93  72  97  72 /  50  20  10   0
Brownwood   91  71  96  71 /  20  10  10  10
Sweetwater  93  74 100  70 /  20  10  10  30
Ozona       92  71  97  73 /  30  20   0   0
Brady       90  71  94  72 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...24