909
FXUS64 KSJT 010544
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Will let the Heat Advisory die at 7 PM this evening, although it
may only be a brief lull of a day or two. Trend that stated
yesterday continue into this afternoon with temperatures peaking
more in the 97 to 102 range with heat index values generally
100-105. Short term blends and raw model data suggest something
very similar for tomorrow, with dewpoints falling in the afternoon
fast enough to keep heat index below criteria. Hotter temperatures
will return for Tuesday so it will likely be only a 1 day
reprieve.

Winds dropped off enough to allow lows in the some locations to
drop down into the lower 70s and that will likely happen again
tonight in some areas. Most areas wont be quite that lucky and
still see lows in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Above-normal temperatures are expected to hang round through at
least Thursday of this week as an upper-level ridge sits over the
area. Temperatures are expected to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs around 100 to 106. Temperatures and heat indices on
the Fourth of July will remain elevated, with values in the upper
90s to near 104. The heat risk is forecast to be in the extreme
category for both San Angelo and Abilene, which means there is a
very high risk for heat-related illnesses on the fourth. There is
a slight chance of showers in the northern Big Country late
Thursday, but right now it looks like most of the precipitation
should remain to our north and west and there shouldn`t be impacts
to July Fourth festivities. The ridge will weaken over our area
starting Friday, as an upper low traverses over the Midwest and
breaks down the ridge. We could potentially see a weak front
Friday into Saturday, increasing rain chances and slightly
decreasing temperatures. Rain amounts are still uncertain at this
time, as models still vary on how far south the better rain
amounts will make it. The front along with the weakening ridge
will help to lower our temperatures a few degrees, putting them
closer to normal for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Some
scattered clouds at around 2000ft are possible around sunrise this
morning. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase this morning and
become gusty this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 102  77 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  100  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 102  78 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK