340
FXUS64 KSJT 050913
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
413 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Cooler temperatures expected across the area today, as a weak cold
front moves through. The front will provide a focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop from north to south today,
primarily during the afternoon hours when the best coverage can be
expected due to daytime heating/instability. Although we are not
expecting severe storms today, the stronger storms will be capable
of producing gusty downburst winds. The airmass will be quite moist
today, which will contribute to heavy downpours with the stronger
storms and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall/localized
flooding. Temperatures will be coolest across the Big Country today,
where afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees. Farther south, highs will range from the low to mid 90s
across the Concho Valley and Heartland, and in the upper 90s along
the I-10 corridor.

For tonight, will maintain low rain chances (20 to 40 percent), with
isolated to widely scattered showers/storms possible. Lows tonight
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Rain chances will continue for the long term as upper level
disturbances move through aloft, cold fronts push into the area,
and Hurricane Beryl makes its approach...

The cold front will eventually stall near our southern counties.
Disturbances in the northwest flow aloft could produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. The front could
also act as a source of convection Saturday afternoon and into the
evening. Any thunderstorms that develop could pose a threat for
damaging winds. Another front is possible on Monday, leading to
additional rain chances, but its southward progression through our
area varies between models.

As of this afternoon, The National Hurricane Center has Beryl making
landfall near the Texas/Mexico border on the Gulf. The forecast
track after that is more uncertain, with some models taking it up
the Rio Grande a ways and others curving the remnants into east
Texas. The path and speed of Beryl will have a big impact on how
much rainfall we will receive. Right now, the most likely rainfall
totals are in the 0.25 to 1.5 inch range (with the higher end
amounts in our southeastern counties). But if we get a favorable
track, we could see higher totals. Rainfall associated with Beryl
could start as early as Tuesday, with rain chances continuing
through the work week.

The uncertainty in the path of Beryl and the front on Monday has led
to a significant spread in the modeled high temperatures for Tuesday
onwards. Model highs for Tuesday range anywhere from the upper 60s
to the upper 90s. Right now, the NBM is keeping temperatures on the
higher end, so be on the lookout for potentially cooler
forecast highs once we get a better idea of Beryl`s movement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will sag through KABI this
morning, and across the reaming terminal this afternoon.
Scattered convection is expected across the terminals after 17Z
but confidence in coverage and timing is rather low. Will maintain
PROB30 groups for this potential this afternoon. No precipitation
is expected this evening, but could see some some isolated
convection develop near the KABI terminal after 06/06Z.
Currently, confidence remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  70  91  73 /  60  40  30  10
San Angelo  97  73  94  74 /  30  40  40  10
Junction    98  74  95  74 /  20  20  40  10
Brownwood   92  71  91  72 /  50  40  40  10
Sweetwater  89  70  92  73 /  50  40  30  10
Ozona       97  73  92  73 /  20  20  30  10
Brady       94  71  90  73 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...24