799
FXUS64 KSHV 101740 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - One more day of scattered to numerous daytime showers and
   thunderstorms today, mainly across our southern and eastern areas.

 - Rain chances diminish for Friday through the upcoming weekend.

 - Temperatures will continue to climb into early next week with
   critical heat indices possible and the return of Heat Advisories
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Surface high pressure across the gulf waters will allow for weak
southerly flow across the ArkLaTex through the early part of the
weekend. Aloft, an upper-trough across the region will allow for
unstable conditions areawide through this evening, allowing for
increased rain chances across portions of north Louisiana.
Conditions are forecast to improve by midnight with overnight lows
forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s.

Rain chances to gradually diminish through the weekend into early
next week as an upper-level ridge across the Atlantic retrogrades
west across the northern gulf coast, eventually becoming centered
across the ArkLaTex by Sunday. Subsidence associated with the high
will bring diminished rain chances along with a gradual warming
trend with high temperatures by Wednesday nearing 100 degrees
areawide.

The combination of hot temperatures and increased humidity values
will result in heat index values approaching advisory criteria
across portions of the region as early as Sunday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and much of
tonight. Scattered convection has developed early this afternoon
across N LA mainly along/S of I-20, with this trend expected to
continue through the remainder of the afternoon while gradually
shifting from W to E. Have inserted VCSH at MLU with tempo thunder
mention there for the afternoon, but confidence is too low to
include thunder in for the SHV terminal, with a scattered cu field
expected elsewhere through early evening. Aside from some elevated
cigs over portions of Cntrl and NE LA this evening, SKC is
expected through much of the evening/overnight hours, although
IFR/low MVFR cigs should develop by/shortly after daybreak Friday
over Deep E TX/Wrn LA S of I-20, and lift N while scattering out
through mic-morning. The higher confidence for these lower cigs
remains at LFK, with a scattered cu field developing by late
morning through the afternoon areawide. Isolated to widely
scattered convection may again develop over Cntrl and NE LA during
the afternoon Friday, just beyond the end of this TAF period. SSW
winds 6-10kts this afternoon will become S and diminish to 3-7kts
after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  75  95  75 /  40  20  10   0
MLU  91  73  95  74 /  50  20  30  10
DEQ  92  71  94  72 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  94  74  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  92  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  74  94  74 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  74  95  74 /  20  10  10   0
LFK  93  73  95  74 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15