680
FXUS64 KSHV 170314 CCA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1014 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Quiet evening across our Four-State area with very little
convective debris leftover. Coverage was pretty slim over our
south with the sea breeze look and really the lion share
occurring over SW AR late today. We even had an an area of
damaging winds and potential large hail in Howard Co. Models all
remain sparse to none overnight including the HRRR. Our lows look
quite persistent in the middle of this "Dog days" heat wave
averaging in the upper 70s. Metro areas likely keeping in the low
80s for much if not all of the night. Current readings are ranging
from 92 in Downtown SHV and 91 and Texarkana, to right at 80 in a
few spots for the coolest. No need to tweak anything here with
this pattern locked in for the weekend at least. The best news is
there is a chance for more isolated activity with this light NW
flow aloft and perhaps even a better coverage chance coming with a
backdoor front approaching for the new work week. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The long term forecast trends will heavily feature the upper level
trough over the Great Lakes, which looks to deepen as the ridge to
our west amplifies, bringing a very welcome pattern change for the
ArkLaTex.

Before that transpires, however, Sunday looks to consist of another
round of this recent hot, sticky and occasionally unsettled pattern
which we are thoroughly tired of experiencing (and writing about).
Riding on the same northwest flow as Saturday`s systems, another
disturbance looks to organize itself Sunday afternoon and ride
southeast out of western Arkansas into the evening and overnight
hours. Guidance suggests a secondary spike in precip chances behind
the initial wave, continuing possibly towards daybreak Monday, with
nearly negligible PoPs remaining into the day Monday. The Day 3 SWO
includes the northeasternmost reaches of the ArkLaTex in a Marginal
Risk, and we will be closely monitoring for the potential for severe
weather development with these complexes.

Sunday afternoon looks to possibly be the hottest of this entire
heat wave, with highs exceeding 100 degrees almost entirely across
the board, and a few sites taking aim at 103 to 104.

As the new work week begins, the eastern extent of the upper level
ridge will recede to the west, while the trough to the east deepens
further, allowing for what looks like northeasterly flow to backdoor
in some more seasonable temperatures, making for some welcome relief
after this prolonged heat wave. Guidance shows highs ranging from
the upper 90s and lower 100s southwest to the upper 80s and lower
90s northeast, followed by a more seasonable pattern consisting of
upper 80s to lower 90s north and lower 90s to middle 90s south
continuing through the remainder of the work week, while quiet
weather conditions prevail.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the 17/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
with very isolated convection diminishing with the setting sun
this evening. Likewise, cumulus field will also fade as heating is
lost with just some convective debris cirrus lingering overnight.
Otherwise, look for a returning cu field on Saturday and another
chance of isolated convection during the afternoon. However, low
confidence precludes any mention of SHRA/TSRA in the current OOZ
TAF cycle. Light S/SW winds overnight will increase to between
5-10 kts again on Saturday with higher gusts invof convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81 101  81 103 /   0   0  10   0
MLU  78 101  79 103 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  75  99  74 102 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  80 101  78 103 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  76  98  76 101 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  80 101  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78 100  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  99  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ149-152-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19