087
FXUS64 KSHV 080142
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
842 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Updates to some high temps this afternoon has boosted heat
   index values to above 105, a little more widespread than
   yesterday. However, afternoon mixing will benefit many locals
   and keep outcomes isolated timeframe in our various zone
   groupings. More clouds and rain around will limit coverage on
   Tuesday.

-  These better rain chances will continue to build over much of
   our Four-State area through midweek as the upper trough to our
   north drops a little farther southward.

 - Highs will see more upper 90s this afternoon, but drop back to
   low to mid 90s through midweek. We will dry out and boost air
   temps back to upper 90s by later this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Partly cloudy skies this afternoon and winds from the southwest
are picking up now. Air temps are ranging in the low to mid 90s
with some drier dew points already mixing in at the noon hour.
Heat index calculations are going to be peaking early this
afternoon as the cumulus clouds build and the middeck continues to
scatter and thin. Coverage of afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms should best yesterday`s effort in coverage.

A weak cool front lies across the plains and mid MS River Valley
and will remain near stationary with falling upper levels heights
extending down into much of Arkansas today and much of our I-20
corridor through midweek. The WPC has a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall sagging down over AR today and tomorrow and
continue sinking into the ArkLaTex by midweek on their day 3
outlook. So we are all looking forward to an uptick in area
rainfall to help our drying soils.

The weakness pattern aloft will linger over the MS River Valley
as the main upper ridging continues over the desert SW U.S. and
over the eastern Atlantic. The remnants of post tropical cyclone
Chantal will continue to climb the Bermuda ridge into the mid
Atlantic states with the ridge building back inland over the SE
U.S. We are dealing with our longest days and shortest nights now
with soil temps continuing to warm into the low to mid 80s during
the overnights. So while temps will ease back slightly due to the
added clouds and rainfall, most locales will keep to mid 70s and
low to mid 90s going through much of the long term picture with
more upper 90s mixing in by the weekend as our rains dry up once
again. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 830 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For the 08/00Z TAF period, convection continues to gradually
lessen in coverage early this evening with lots of convective
debris cloud cover lingering overnight. However, VFR conditions
should maintain throughout the period but will be watching out for
the potential of some patchy fog toward daybreak. However, lower
confidence precludes any mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect
a repeat performance on Tuesday with a cu field blossoming toward
midday and scattered mid to late afternoon convection once again.
For now, have only included VCTS at all sites by around 08/21Z.
Otherwise, look for mostly light and variable winds overnight and
then trending back S/SW between 5-10 kts on Tuesday with higher
gusts invof convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  75  92 /  20  60  30  60
MLU  74  94  74  93 /  20  50  20  70
DEQ  71  89  70  91 /  20  50  20  40
TXK  75  93  74  93 /  20  50  20  50
ELD  72  92  72  90 /  20  60  30  70
TYR  74  92  73  93 /  10  40  20  50
GGG  74  92  73  92 /  10  50  20  60
LFK  73  93  73  93 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19