908
FXUS64 KSHV 121548
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1048 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Showers associated with the MCS in southeastern Oklahoma and
southwestern Arkansas continue as of the 15Z hour, thus have
increased PoPs accordingly. Still expecting this activity to
diminish into the early afternoon hours if not sooner, with a
slight chances of scattered thunderstorms across our southern
zones as the afternoon continues. Temperatures look on track, with
the MCS and associated rain and cloud cover keeping temps cooler
along and north of I-30, and aiming for the upper 90s elsewhere,
especially with this morning`s overcast ac skies beginning to
thin out and make for a mostly sunny afternoon.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Upper-air analysis from this morning continues to show ridging
across the southwest CONUS with an area of low pressure across the
northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows a stalled out
frontal boundary just to the south of our area that will gradually
lift back through our region as a warm front on Tuesday. Being on
the peripheral of the ridge, portions of our northern zones
remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft. As was the
case last night, another large MCS has developed over northeast
Oklahoma and looks to move into portions of our far northern zones
later this morning. The main question remains, how far will it
get. Right now I have PoPs in for areas along and north of I-30.
The MCS Sunday morning did make it to our area but failed to get
past I-30 and I don`t see anything that would suggest otherwise
this morning.

After some minor relief from the heat this past weekend, we begin
a warming trend today that will last through the rest of the week.
Afternoon temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s across our northern zones, that will be more influenced
by this incoming MCS and associated cloud cover, while the rest
of the region will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Heat
index values will climb above 100 degrees, and there was some
argument that said we could have put out a Heat Advisory for
portions of our eastern zones where these values could reach 105
degrees. That being said, it appears that it will be spotty in
nature and we did not have the support of surrounding offices so
we have elected to go without one today. Never fear, it looks like
the rest of the week will have no problem reaching at least Heat
Advisory criteria starting most likely on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

I could go on and on about the set up for the long-term portion of
the forecast period. But to save us all some time, ridging is
expected to continue to shift eastward and have more of a grip on
our region by Tuesday night and really continue well into next
weekend. In response to this, afternoon temperatures from
Wednesday through Saturday will range from the upper 90s to lower
100s each day across the region, possibly getting slightly warmer
each day into the weekend. Sounds amazing right? In addition to
that, heat index values will be at or well above the Heat Advisory
criteria of 105 degrees each day. The only real concern for each
day of the week will be where we place the Heat Advisory versus
the Excessive Heat Warning each day as the location of the hottest
heat indices could vary at times. Not much rain to speak of for
the long-term portion of the forecast period unfortunately aside
from any diurnal convection during the afternoon hours. Long
range models do show a potential for some rainfall Sunday into
Monday as the ridge looks to retrograde to the west slightly and
our area returns to northwest flow aloft. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Another broad complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving into
Southeast Oklahoma and will likely affect portions of Northeast
Texas and Southwest Arkansas north of Interstate 30 early in the
period. It is still very uncertain how far south the rain will
persist. Most of the models suggest the precip will weaken
significantly with southward extent during the first few hours of
the TAF cycle. However, the convection is quite robust, so VCTS
was maintained at KTXK between 12/18z and 12/22z. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions should prevail with abundant mid level cloud cover and
sustained winds remaining below 10 kts.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  79 100  80 /  10  10  10   0
MLU  98  76 100  77 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  90  72  98  74 /  50   0  10   0
TXK  95  76 100  78 /  30   0  10   0
ELD  94  73  98  75 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  98  78  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  96  76  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  97  76  98  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09