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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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768 FXUS64 KSHV 140542 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Another hot afternoon under upper ridging has once again led to a warm night across the ArkLaTex. Latest ASOS/AWOS observations continue to advertise temperatures in the mid to upper 80`s. Though the Heat Advisory in effect earlier this afternoon was allowed to expire, a new Heat Advisory is in effect for the region starting at 10 AM CDT Wednesday. Aside from adjusting hourlies to match the latest trends, no other updates are needed at this time, and the forecast remains on track for the overnight period. RK && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The upper level ridging will continue to exert its influence over the ArkLaTex throughout this forecast period. The ridge axis will drift east over the Plains and into the Midwest, but the associated upper level high will stay well and truly centered over the Four State Region through the remainder of this week. Tomorrow looks to play out very similarly to today, with even less of a rainfall chance, and what looks to be less precipitable water available to transform into a Cu field during the late to mid morning. From this set up, look for slightly less oppressive dew points but higher air temperatures, resulting in ultimately similar heat indices. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s with dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees, thus have seen fit to issue another Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM Wednesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible. A few widely scattered showers and storms across southeast Arkansas and northeast Louisiana may manage to intrude into Union county and Union parish tomorrow afternoon, but the high pressure overhead will prevent any widespread rainfall impacts. Lows in the mid to upper 70s Thursday morning will be followed by another quiet and hot day of upper 90s and lower 100s. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Not to sound unnecessarily repetitive, but it remains true that once you`ve got a handle on one day`s worth of our forecast, it`s pretty much rinse and repeat for the time being. Afternoon highs in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. This stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the week, but not enough to keep apparent temperatures from climbing back into advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon. The GFS depicts upper level features continuing to morph and drift around us as the week goes on, our area of high pressure will remain trapped in place through Friday, before a new and deeper high develops over the Four State Region and starts to absorb our high, causing it to retrograde and opening the door to slight chances of afternoon thunderstorms impacting our far southeastern zones in north central Louisiana during the afternoon hours Friday and Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, a deepening trough to our east may manage to influence somewhat more widespread chances of showers, but the probabilities still look fairly low. Early next week looks to continue much in the same pattern, with brief chances of very isolated storms across our far southeast each afternoon. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites, but some lower ceilings around 2500 feet may develop and move northward into East Texas near or just after sunrise. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop after 14/20z across South Central Arkansas and Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Therefore, a mention of VCTS was included at KELD and KMLU. Any convection that does develop will be primarily diurnally-driven and should quickly dissipate late in the period after sunset. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 100 80 101 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 79 101 78 101 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 76 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 TYR 78 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 76 97 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...09