![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
946 FXUS64 KSHV 162009 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 309 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Long range guidance through the week has depicted an amplifying of the upper level ridge over the Rockies, extending its axis north towards Canada into this weekend, and that does still look to be the case, but subtle variations in the behavior of the outer reaches of our omnipresent upper level high may have notable consequences on ArkLaTex weather in the next day or so. In a nutshell, the northeastern "side" of the high and associated ridging looks to contract far enough south and west for its northwest flow to make a more pronounced effort to funnel some disturbances into the Four State Region. The first of these may just graze us from the northeast late overnight tonight, bringing isolated areas of impacts to our Arkansas counties, but the SPC does have us outlooked in a Marginal Risk, so intensification of some storms to severe criteria is not out of the question. There are far more question marks surrounding tomorrow`s potential weather, but what can be said at this point is that a weak upper level shortwave looks to ride the northwest flow tomorrow, kicking up a potentially organized complex of elevated storms riding south out of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The latest high resolution guidance (HRRR, FV3) has these storms coming together south of Fort Smith and progressing towards Texarkana. Further south, their behavior gets murkier, as they very well might just collapse. However, they will be entering a very ripe environment, abounding with above average heat and stubborn low level moisture, so their retaining organizational structure and possibly producing a wind threat is worth watching out for. This will be examined in updates overnight to see if guidance continues to resolve this feature. As far as heat hazards, the story remains very much the same: the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory have been extended to continue overnight and through the day Saturday until expiring at 02Z Sunday, encompassing the same areas as they did today. Lows tonight will again fall only into the middle to upper 70s, possibly not even below 80 for some sites, with a repeat performance in store overnight Saturday into Sunday. Highs tomorrow are projected to climb back to the upper 90s, with numerous sites reaching the lower 100s. Dew points look to continue to be slow to mix out, remaining in the mid 70s until early afternoon, resulting in max heat indices ranging from 105 to as high as 115, hence the aforementioned product continuance. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The long term forecast trends will heavily feature the upper level trough over the Great Lakes, which looks to deepen as the ridge to our west amplifies, bringing a very welcome pattern change for the ArkLaTex. Before that transpires, however, Sunday looks to consist of another round of this recent hot, sticky and occasionally unsettled pattern which we are thoroughly tired of experiencing (and writing about). Riding on the same northwest flow as Saturday`s systems, another disturbance looks to organize itself Sunday afternoon and ride southeast out of western Arkansas into the evening and overnight hours. Guidance suggests a secondary spike in precip chances behind the initial wave, continuing possibly towards daybreak Monday, with nearly negligible PoPs remaining into the day Monday. The Day 3 SWO includes the northeasternmost reaches of the ArkLaTex in a Marginal Risk, and we will be closely monitoring for the potential for severe weather development with these complexes. Sunday afternoon looks to possibly be the hottest of this entire heat wave, with highs exceeding 100 degrees almost entirely across the board, and a few sites taking aim at 103 to 104. As the new work week begins, the eastern extent of the upper level ridge will recede to the west, while the trough to the east deepens further, allowing for what looks like northeasterly flow to backdoor in some more seasonable temperatures, making for some welcome relief after this prolonged heat wave. Guidance shows highs ranging from the upper 90s and lower 100s southwest to the upper 80s and lower 90s northeast, followed by a more seasonable pattern consisting of upper 80s to lower 90s north and lower 90s to middle 90s south continuing through the remainder of the work week, while quiet weather conditions prevail. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 16/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has again developed across much of the region early this afternoon, and will persist before diminishing by/shortly after 01Z. Aside from some thin cirrus, SKC will prevail overnight, but should see some additional cirrus from spill SSE from convection that will develop/spread SE through Nrn and Cntrl AR prior to daybreak Saturday. Otherwise, should see another cu field develop by/after mid-morning Saturday, with the potential for isolated to widely scattered convection developing by mid/late afternoon over SW AR, which may spread into portions of N LA by 00Z Sunday. SSW winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become S 5kts or less (or Lt/Vrb) after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 101 81 103 / 0 0 10 0 MLU 78 101 79 103 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 75 99 74 102 / 20 20 20 10 TXK 80 101 78 103 / 10 20 20 10 ELD 76 98 76 101 / 20 10 20 10 TYR 80 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 78 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 77 99 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ149-152-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15