433
FXUS64 KSHV 150209
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
909 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Heat indices are all down below triple digit ranges, but still a
warm evening to be sure with a large range of 80s at this hour and
still 90 at Shreveport Regional. The heat advisory continues with
a few of our metro areas now seeing their low temps hanging in
the lower 80s during much if not all of the overnight. Many sites
have a calm wind and dew points vary all through the 70s. The 68
degrees at Gilmer is the driest with a muggy 79 degrees just down
the road in Marshall. The drier air spots around are simply still
recovering from the day`s mixing and with what little moisture
remains in our soil and plants, with the Gulf air set to level
that playing field overnight. We don`t really see any reason to
vary much from persistence and our current forecast. Although a
few outflow winds did make a dent in the late day heat, that has
likely already modified and we will all end up in the same boat by
daybreak. To note, the 80 forecast at TXK/SHV will both tie
records for warm lows set in `22/`10 respectively. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

We swear there are actual human forecasters writing and updating
these discussions and not just a "copy and paste" function. Alas, it
does start to feel that way after days on end of the same.

Afternoon highs will continue to reach the upper 90s to just
above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and
a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. The
stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the week and more
so into the weekend, but apparent temperatures are still expected
to reach Heat Advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon.

The exact behavior of the omnipresent upper level high pressure
system has been a point of some fluctuation from one forecast
update to the next lately. The latest model consensus suggests
that the high may remain centered far enough to the west through
Saturday to allow daily slight chances of scattered thunderstorms
each afternoon, primarily across our southeast quadrant, affecting
our central and eastern Louisiana parishes.

By Sunday, the high begins to drift eastward as the vast upper
level ridge amplifies over the Front Range and extends over the
Great Plains and into the Midwest. In a nutshell, this will hinder
even our meager precip chances from Sunday through the first half
of next week. Even the tail end of this extended forecast period
finds the upper level high meandering very little, still in place
over Colorado and New Mexico, with no significant break in this
established hot and dry pattern in sight yet.
/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the 15/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this period as a cu field slowly diminishes this evening along
with some very isolated convection across our eastern airspace.
Some residual cirrus from decaying convection will persist this
evening and overnight, but otherwise expect mostly SKC. Cu field
will redevelop after 15Z on Thursday with light and variable winds
becoming SW between 5-10 kts.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 100  80 101 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  79 100  78 101 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
TYR  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19