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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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710 FXUS64 KSHV 150556 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 839 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Heat indices are all down below triple digit ranges, but still a warm evening to be sure with a large range of 80s at this hour and still 90 at Shreveport Regional. The heat advisory continues with a few of our metro areas now seeing their low temps hanging in the lower 80s during much if not all of the overnight. Many sites have a calm wind and dew points vary all through the 70s. The 68 degrees at Gilmer is the driest with a muggy 79 degrees just down the road in Marshall. The drier air spots around are simply still recovering from the day`s mixing and with what little moisture remains in our soil and plants, with the Gulf air set to level that playing field overnight. We don`t really see any reason to vary much from persistence and our current forecast. Although a few outflow winds did make a dent in the late day heat, that has likely already modified and we will all end up in the same boat by daybreak. To note, the 80 forecast at TXK/SHV will both tie records for warm lows set in `22/`10 respectively. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 We swear there are actual human forecasters writing and updating these discussions and not just a "copy and paste" function. Alas, it does start to feel that way after days on end of the same. Afternoon highs will continue to reach the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. The stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the week and more so into the weekend, but apparent temperatures are still expected to reach Heat Advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon. The exact behavior of the omnipresent upper level high pressure system has been a point of some fluctuation from one forecast update to the next lately. The latest model consensus suggests that the high may remain centered far enough to the west through Saturday to allow daily slight chances of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, primarily across our southeast quadrant, affecting our central and eastern Louisiana parishes. By Sunday, the high begins to drift eastward as the vast upper level ridge amplifies over the Front Range and extends over the Great Plains and into the Midwest. In a nutshell, this will hinder even our meager precip chances from Sunday through the first half of next week. Even the tail end of this extended forecast period finds the upper level high meandering very little, still in place over Colorado and New Mexico, with no significant break in this established hot and dry pattern in sight yet. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible between 15/18z-16/01z, mainly from Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir eastward into Northeast and North Central Louisiana. However, overall rain chances at any individual site is too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 101 80 101 / 0 10 0 10 MLU 78 101 78 101 / 10 20 10 20 DEQ 74 100 74 98 / 0 10 10 10 TXK 79 102 78 101 / 0 10 0 10 ELD 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 10 20 TYR 79 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...09