Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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061 FXUS64 KSHV 150827 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Guess what...38 days...1 month, 7 days...5 weeks, 3 days...however you want to say it, that is how much time separates us from the fall equinox, otherwise known as the date that marks the end of summer and the beginning of fall. Does this mean this it will no longer be hotter than a jalapeno`s temper? I can`t promise that based on this ridge, but historically speaking, "normal" high temperatures are typically in the mid to upper 80s by then so I say bring it on. The only bad news is, in 38 days I will be back on these overnight shifts, although hopefully there will be something interesting to write about by then. Alright, enough chit-chat, let`s get back to the forecast...It`s going to be hot. That`s it, that`s the discussion. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees with heat index values above 105 degrees this afternoon. Heat index values across our far eastern zones of north central Louisiana will reach 110 degrees or greater though this afternoon and for this reason, I have elected to issue an Excessive Heat Warning from Union Parish south to Grant and La Salle Parishes through 8 pm this evening. An inherited Heat Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the area. As with the past few days, there remains a non-zero chance for some afternoon convection with today`s best chances coming for areas across central Louisiana. Otherwise, dry conditions remain in place. The heat dial will remain cranked up to the max for Friday, with afternoon highs ranging once again from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees and heat index values in excess of 105 across the region. There also remains a non-zero chance for some afternoon convection across our southeast zones by Friday afternoon. If you are lucky enough to see moisture then fortune has been kind to you. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Let`s just get this out of the way, Saturday and Sunday are going to remain hotter than a barbecue on the sun. So I must admit, I might have been so fixated on the current heat wave that I might have overlooked next week`s pattern - or maybe things have shifted in the last 24 hours. Either way, here`s the silver lining in a rough week to talk about the weather: a trough will start digging southward through the central CONUS from Sunday evening into Monday morning, bringing with it a weak cool front and potentially some much-needed moisture, at least according to one model. As for our relentless death ridge, it will begin to shift back west where it belongs. While it will still be hot, I think it will be more like a spicy pepper than a fire-breathing dragon for areas that might be behind the frontal boundary. Some areas might still reach the upper 90s across our western zones, but all this depends on how far the ridge can retrograde west. Highs will still be in the 90s for most of the region, but hopefully not flirting with the 100s. In addition, heat index values should ease some for areas behind the frontal boundary. There you have it, something to look forward to...kind of. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible between 15/18z-16/01z, mainly from Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir eastward into Northeast and North Central Louisiana. However, overall rain chances at any individual site is too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 80 101 80 / 0 0 10 0 MLU 100 78 100 79 / 10 10 20 10 DEQ 98 75 99 74 / 0 0 10 10 TXK 100 79 101 78 / 0 0 10 0 ELD 99 76 99 76 / 10 0 10 0 TYR 99 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 97 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>004-010>012- 017-018. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ005- 006-013-014-019>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09