526
FXUS64 KSHV 031136
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Bottom line up front...it is going to be hot for Independence Day.
High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday,
allowing temperatures to soar into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Mix this with higher humidity values and we will see heat
index values range from around 105 to 113 degrees across the area.
As a result, Heat Advisory remains in effect for some of our east
Texas counties along with McCurtain county with an Excessive Heat
Warning for the remainder of the region. Changes to these product
was the addition of Angelina and Nacogdoches counties into the
Excessive Heat Warning and then I have decided to extend the
products out through 8:00 PM Thursday evening. Main reason for
this is for messaging purposes. With the amount of people expected
to be spending time outdoors on Thursday, we wanted to make sure
to message early that it is going to be hot, not to mention that
the numbers support the extension.

Very isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
across much of the region this afternoon. Yesterday we had some
showers pop up as far north as the I-30 corridor. Nonetheless, the
best chances remain across our southern zones, but I can`t rule
out a random shower or two outside the areas of greatest PoPs. For
Independence Day, the best chances for some of natures fireworks
will be across our south and eastern zones, however, a stray
shower or two could be possible once again outside of the highest
PoPs. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

There is some good news and some bad news about the long-term
portion of the forecast. The good news is, there seems to be a
little pattern shift as we head into the weekend that could bring
some widespread rain chances to the area in addition to some
relief from the heat we have been seeing. Especially for Saturday
and Sunday, guidance is suggesting temperatures in the upper 80s
to lower 90s across the region. The bad news is that heat indices
appear to remain in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Even better,
these "cooler" ambient temperatures will continue into the start
of next week and there is a chance that we might not need the heat
products that seem to be endless right now.

The precipitation potential towards the end of the week and into
the weekend is due to the stubborn upper-level ridge finally
shifting far enough to the east and an upper-level trough digging
into the Plains. An associated frontal boundary at the surface
will begin to push south and into our region by early Friday
morning across our northern zones before spreading through the
remainder of the area during the day. This frontal boundary will
stall out across our northern zones as we head into the rest of
the weekend, allowing for additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop and move through the area for both Saturday and Sunday.
From here, all eyes continue to turn to the Gulf of Mexico as what
is now Hurricane Beryl decides where it wants to go. The GFS (yes
it is only one model solution) has Beryl heading into far south
Texas with another disturbance following behind it and then
tracking through our region. With the amount of heat and lack of
rain, this moisture might be welcomed with open arms to some. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the next
24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms associated with the
sea breeze may affect portions of Deep East Texas eastward into
Central Louisiana between 03/18z-04/02z, but overall rain chances
at KLFK remain low. Southerly surface winds should also persist
with sustained speeds remaining below 10 kts.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  82  99  81 /  10   0  10  10
MLU  99  78  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  77  97  74 /  10   0  10  30
TXK 101  80  99  78 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  99  78  97  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  80  99  78 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  99  79  98  78 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  97  77  97  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ097-112-
     126-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-
     136-137-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09