108
FXUS64 KSHV 040547
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Air temps are running all through the 80s, but working down out
of the upper end anyway. Shreveport Regional was 84 last hour, but
with the deep soil temp so warm, we are still radiating heat into
the air and edged back to 87 with a light S/SW wind. KSHV had a
nice shower and rainbow late today as the sea breeze rode all the
way up I-49 with a nickel in the bucket. As usual, more wind than
rain this far north with a gust to 32 mph at 639pm, but what
little coverage we managed develop before sunset is nearly all
gone at this time, aside from two tiny late arrivals over Toledo
Bend at this time. So no planned changes as the pop grid goes
silent at 03Z in a few minutes. We will resend the zones at that
time to remove any further widespread mention of rainfall this
evening. Although the HRRR does crop up a few more QPF blips,
coverage will be quite isolated. Most sites are calm with some
patchy fog possible where rain did wet the ground. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday night`s storms will only become more widespread Friday
morning, moving to cover the entire region into the afternoon hours.
At this time, the entire ArkLaTex is highlighted in the general
thunder area by the SPC, and careful attention will be given over
the next few days to any potential for more organized stronger
storms.

This will mark the beginning of a more prolonged unsettled pattern
for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in
our heat all this week finally begins to shift off to the south and
east enough to allow the upper level trough digging south over the
Plains to swing its associated surface boundary into the region,
looking to become stalled here throughout the extended forecast
period. This new pattern will be characterized by more seasonable
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s,
owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as several waves of
storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and into early next
week.

Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane
Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to
southern Texas. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do not likely as of
this writing, we will of course be monitoring the latest forecast
updates attentively.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A few isolated showers continue to move north across North
Central Louisiana and into Arkansas but should dissipate early in
the TAF period. VFR flight conditions should prevail for the next
24 hours with scattered daytime cu around 5000 feet. More isolated
convection will be possible between 04/18z-05/02z east of a line
from KELD to KAQV. However, overall rain chances at KELD and KMLU
are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  98  77  92 /  10  40  40  50
MLU  79  95  75  91 /  10  60  40  50
DEQ  74  91  69  91 /  30  40  20  20
TXK  78  96  73  93 /  20  40  30  30
ELD  75  94  71  90 /  20  60  30  30
TYR  78  96  75  93 /  10  30  40  40
GGG  78  96  75  91 /  10  40  40  50
LFK  77  97  76  91 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-
     112-126-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124-
     125-136-137-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09