913
FXUS64 KSHV 041759 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Another day, another aggressive morning of warming across much of
the ArkLaTex. As of the 15-16Z hour, temperatures have climbed
into the lower 90s already. Thus have elected to increase today`s
highs by ~1 degree. Upper 90s will prevail across the ArkLaTex,
with some sites hitting the century mark yet again, based on
persistence, established warming trends, and areas of likely lack
of precipitation this afternoon. Dew points in the middle 70s
will result in heat indices climbing back into the 105 to 115
range by mid-afternoon.

Scattered showers and storms will still be possible for our
southern and eastern zones after noon. Prevailing wind patterns
look to steer these storms from southwest to northeast, most
likely beginning in the Toledo Bend region and expanding in
coverage towards Monroe, LA and adjacent regions of southern
Arkansas, quickly tapering off after 00Z.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions should continue through the 04/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed across much of the region early
this afternoon, and will linger before diminishing shortly after
00Z. Isolated convection can`t be ruled out this afternoon mainly
over Cntrl LA into Lower Toledo Bend Country, but should remain E
of the LFK terminal. Scattered to numerous areas of convection
are expected to develop by this evening over Cntrl and NE OK, and
will begin to shift SE into extreme SE OK/SW AR by/after 06Z,
although this convection should weaken quickly as it shifts to
areas along/N of I-20 through daybreak Friday. Some cu and cirrus
cigs will accompany the decaying convection overnight as it shifts
SE, but lingering sfc bndrys may help focus widely scattered
convection by daybreak over portions of SW AR, where VCSH was
added to the SW AR terminals. Isolated convection can`t be ruled
our farther S into portions of E TX/N LA with any decaying bndrys,
but low confidence precludes mention at the terminals attm. Areas
of stratus/low stratocu may develop by/after 12Z Friday over Deep
E TX/Cntrl LA, but should not make it much farther N than I-20 by
mid-morning, before a scattered cu field develops by mid and late
morning. Scattered deeper convection should develop by afternoon
especially over E TX/N LA once daytime heating/instability is
maximized. SSW winds 6-10kts this afternoon will become WSW around
5kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  81  97  77 /  10  20  60  40
MLU  98  78  95  74 /  30  20  70  40
DEQ  98  73  90  68 /  10  50  40  10
TXK 100  77  94  72 /  10  30  50  20
ELD  98  76  92  70 /  20  20  70  30
TYR 100  78  95  75 /   0  10  50  30
GGG  99  77  95  74 /  10  10  60  40
LFK  98  77  97  75 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-
     112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124-
     125-136-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15