Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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336 FXUS64 KSHV 302020 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Nice little clusters of showers and thunderstorms are going from SE OK across S AR and just edging into N LA now. We see spotty convection farther south. All this activity is trying to establish a little cool pool north, but lots of holes in that cheese so far. The HRRR does a decent job of representing the areas of concern and drifting southward into the evening as well. This rain should make for a slightly cooler day tomorrow with heat index 105 or less for at least S AR. Elsewhere, heat calculations will generally be in the 106 to 110 range with another heat advisory for Monday. We may see another warning upgrade if we end up with some compressional heating tomorrow, but for now considering current warning, we are sticking with another heat advisory for Monday for our counties in OK/TX and all our LA parishes, excluding S AR to some extent. Barring some decent rainfall, it will be another night with some near record warmth for lows at most locales, but some rain cooled areas will be possible. Highs will be in the middle 90 range for most under added clouds and the humidity will still running soupy, boosting those HI numbers. The chance for more convection continues along and south of I-20 for the most part on Monday and then dries up going forward for a while. Lows tomorrow night should see the benefit of the weak front with a little cooler range for lows in the low to mid 70s on Tuesday as the 1027mb core stays in the Great Lakes. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Much like this last little air mass, we are grazed by the northeast winds briefly and see just one day and one night of slightly cooler temps. Mid to late week will continue with mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s widespread once again. The sea breeze will spread into the parishes under the building upper high and not much else during midweek. The models are trending closer to average for next weekend as a deeper and stronger upper low edges another front down into our neck of the woods. So model pops are in the 20-40 range again by the end of the forecast period keeping back the triple digits perhaps. /24/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Cumulus field currently in development may initially range from high-end MVFR to low-end VFR but will lift to VFR through the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms most likely from TXK to SHV to ELD and MLU through sunset. Any TSRA passage at these terminals could result in briefly erratic wind speeds and direction and as well as reduced vsbys. SCT-BKN ceilings may then develop Monday morning across all terminals, especially the northern and eastern terminals as a front approaches. Winds generally W/NW today 5-8kts, becoming light and variable overnight and shifting to the NE around 5kts Monday morning. Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 96 77 100 / 20 40 0 10 MLU 76 94 72 97 / 20 20 0 10 DEQ 74 93 72 96 / 20 20 0 0 TXK 77 93 73 100 / 20 30 0 0 ELD 74 93 69 97 / 20 20 0 0 TYR 80 97 78 100 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 78 96 77 99 / 10 30 0 10 LFK 77 97 77 98 / 10 40 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 059-070>073. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061. Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059- 070. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-018>022. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017. Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097- 112. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...23