626
FXUS64 KSHV 050224
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
924 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Top of the hour obs are cooling slightly for those in the great
outdoors ready to enjoy fireworks around our Four-State area.
Heat index calculations are all down in the double digits except
for a handful of our bigger city heat islands. All sites in the
metro area are still just into the lower triple digit range. At
least there is a little wind stirring the air temps in mid to
upper 80s for most sites. It was 82 degrees for the cool spot in
Magnolia and 91 for the warmest at Texarkana and all metro sites
in NW LA. No changes to lows on the forecast grid for this warm
overnight.

Natures fireworks are perhaps just out of distant site over the
horizon in SE OK. Nothing convective yet in our area, but perhaps
some outflow winds working in there, so no changes to the fringe
PoPs/Wx in McCurtain for late this evening. The HRRR model is
looking at arrivals just after midnight at the latest, but the 18Z
GFS was a little faster. We still have good CAPE, but a little
midlevel cap on our sounding at 00Z around 700mb. So hopefully we
can get the outflow to overcome that feature now with the sun
gone. If not, this outflow may slip by unused at least on this
outset. More convection to come in our short term. /24/


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Friday`s convection marks the beginning of a more prolonged
unsettled pattern for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which
has been locking in our heat all this week finally begins to shift
off to the south and east enough to allow the upper level trough
digging south over the Plains to swing its associated surface
boundary into the region, looking to become stalled here throughout
the extended forecast period. This new pattern will be characterized
by more seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows
in the lower 70s, owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as
several waves of storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and
into early next week.

Saturday will see a continuation of the overnight convection
greeting daybreak this weekend, followed by a bit of a respite
overnight, then another round of convection beginning early Sunday
and continuing through the day. This behavior will feature in
something of a "rinse and repeat" pattern into next week, as the
stationary boundary remains in place. In a nutshell, daily rainfall
chances are in store through to the end of this forecast.

Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane
Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to
southern Texas in the early hours of Monday. Beyond that, the track
of this system is far less certain. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do
not look especially likely as of this writing, they cannot be ruled
out altogether either, and we will of course be monitoring the
latest tropical forecast updates attentively in the coming days.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 05/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions continues this evening
as the late afternoon cu field gradually diminishes. Convection to
our NW will gradually spread SE overnight with advancing outflow
boundaries possibly initiating new showers and thunderstorms after
midnight through daybreak down along the I-30 corridor. Therefore,
have included VCSH/VCTS at TXK from mid to late morning while low
confidence precludes any mention of convection farther south and
east. Otherwise, expect returning cu/stratocu with low VFR cigs by
late morning or early afternoon. Light S/SW winds will veer more
W/NW with advancing outflows and the eventual frontal passage in
the latter half of the TAF period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  96  78  92 /  10  60  40  40
MLU  79  95  74  92 /  10  70  40  40
DEQ  73  89  68  90 /  50  50  20  10
TXK  77  93  73  93 /  40  50  20  20
ELD  75  92  70  90 /  30  60  20  20
TYR  77  95  75  91 /  20  50  30  40
GGG  77  95  74  91 /  10  50  40  50
LFK  77  97  75  91 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19