898
FXUS64 KSHV 040257
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
957 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Air temps are running all through the 80s, but working down out
of the upper end anyway. Shreveport Regional was 84 last hour, but
with the deep soil temp so warm, we are still radiating heat into
the air and edged back to 87 with a light S/SW wind. KSHV had a
nice shower and rainbow late today as the sea breeze rode all the
way up I-49 with a nickel in the bucket. As usual, more wind than
rain this far north with a gust to 32 mph at 639pm, but what
little coverage we managed develop before sunset is nearly all
gone at this time, aside from two tiny late arrivals over Toledo
Bend at this time. So no planned changes as the pop grid goes
silent at 03Z in a few minutes. We will resend the zones at that
time to remove any further widespread mention of rainfall this
evening. Although the HRRR does crop up a few more QPF blips,
coverage will be quite isolated. Most sites are calm with some
patchy fog possible where rain did wet the ground. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday night`s storms will only become more widespread Friday
morning, moving to cover the entire region into the afternoon hours.
At this time, the entire ArkLaTex is highlighted in the general
thunder area by the SPC, and careful attention will be given over
the next few days to any potential for more organized stronger
storms.

This will mark the beginning of a more prolonged unsettled pattern
for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in
our heat all this week finally begins to shift off to the south and
east enough to allow the upper level trough digging south over the
Plains to swing its associated surface boundary into the region,
looking to become stalled here throughout the extended forecast
period. This new pattern will be characterized by more seasonable
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s,
owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as several waves of
storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and into early next
week.

Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane
Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to
southern Texas. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do not likely as of
this writing, we will of course be monitoring the latest forecast
updates attentively.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the 04/00Z TAF period, outflow driven convection has pushed as
far north as the I-20 corridor early this evening with brief impacts
at SHV in the form of heavy downpours and gusty winds. This isolated
convection will diminish with the setting sun in the next few hours
with limited convective debris clouds lingering overnight. However,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail although patchy low stratus
may become scattered closer to daybreak along and south of I-20.
Otherwise, look for a similar trend of expanding cu field Thursday
with S/SW winds averaging between 5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82 100  81  98 /  20  10  10  40
MLU  79  97  79  95 /  20  20  10  60
DEQ  76  97  74  91 /  10  10  30  40
TXK  80  99  78  96 /  10  10  20  40
ELD  77  97  75  94 /  20  20  20  60
TYR  80  99  78  96 /   0   0  10  30
GGG  79  98  78  96 /  20  10  10  40
LFK  77  97  77  97 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ097-112-
     126-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-
     136-137-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19