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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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108 FXUS64 KSHV 040547 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Air temps are running all through the 80s, but working down out of the upper end anyway. Shreveport Regional was 84 last hour, but with the deep soil temp so warm, we are still radiating heat into the air and edged back to 87 with a light S/SW wind. KSHV had a nice shower and rainbow late today as the sea breeze rode all the way up I-49 with a nickel in the bucket. As usual, more wind than rain this far north with a gust to 32 mph at 639pm, but what little coverage we managed develop before sunset is nearly all gone at this time, aside from two tiny late arrivals over Toledo Bend at this time. So no planned changes as the pop grid goes silent at 03Z in a few minutes. We will resend the zones at that time to remove any further widespread mention of rainfall this evening. Although the HRRR does crop up a few more QPF blips, coverage will be quite isolated. Most sites are calm with some patchy fog possible where rain did wet the ground. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Thursday night`s storms will only become more widespread Friday morning, moving to cover the entire region into the afternoon hours. At this time, the entire ArkLaTex is highlighted in the general thunder area by the SPC, and careful attention will be given over the next few days to any potential for more organized stronger storms. This will mark the beginning of a more prolonged unsettled pattern for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in our heat all this week finally begins to shift off to the south and east enough to allow the upper level trough digging south over the Plains to swing its associated surface boundary into the region, looking to become stalled here throughout the extended forecast period. This new pattern will be characterized by more seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s, owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as several waves of storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to southern Texas. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do not likely as of this writing, we will of course be monitoring the latest forecast updates attentively. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A few isolated showers continue to move north across North Central Louisiana and into Arkansas but should dissipate early in the TAF period. VFR flight conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours with scattered daytime cu around 5000 feet. More isolated convection will be possible between 04/18z-05/02z east of a line from KELD to KAQV. However, overall rain chances at KELD and KMLU are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 98 77 92 / 10 40 40 50 MLU 79 95 75 91 / 10 60 40 50 DEQ 74 91 69 91 / 30 40 20 20 TXK 78 96 73 93 / 20 40 30 30 ELD 75 94 71 90 / 20 60 30 30 TYR 78 96 75 93 / 10 30 40 40 GGG 78 96 75 91 / 10 40 40 50 LFK 77 97 76 91 / 0 30 30 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097- 112-126-138-150>153-165>167. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124- 125-136-137-149. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...09