141
FXUS63 KSGF 111705
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium rain chances (15-30%) west of Highway 65 Today.
  High temperatures remaining below average.

- Higher rain chances (70-90%) late tonight through Monday
  morning. 1-3 inches of rain along and west of Highway 65.
  Slight risk for excessive rainfall which may lead to localized
  flash flooding.

- Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices
  reaching 100-105 degrees by Wednesday. Warmest temperatures
  west of Springfield.

- Several additional rain chances this week. Highest rain
  chances shift northeast of Springfield by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A west to northwest
upper level flow pattern was located across the central US. A
35kt low level jet has developed across the Texas panhandle and
was nosing into western Oklahoma. Lift from this warm air
advection has created scattered showers and storms across
Oklahoma. Low level moisture continues to increase across our
area (1.6in PW on 00z sounding) as surface high pressure begins
to slide east. Temperatures remain slightly higher than 24hours
ago thanks to cloud cover.

Today: Low level jet will continue to increase and veer through
sunrise and expecting more widespread activity to develop along
the I-35 corridor of Kansas and Oklahoma. Additional, however
more isolated activity will occur further east across southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri. As we head through the morning
the low level jet will continue to veer and weaken however
scattered showers and storms will continue west of Springfield,
especially southwest of a Columbus, KS to Joplin to Cassville
line. Rainfall amounts will likely remain less than 0.50 inch.
Widespread clouds are likely today which will lead to another
well below average day. The NBM has a decent spread in high
temps for Springfield with the 25th percentile in the upper 70s
and the 75th percentile in the lower 80s. Given the clouds have
leaned towards the cooler numbers.

Tonight through Monday: Short term guidance is in good agreement
that a stronger low level jet will develop tonight from central
Oklahoma into southeast Kansas (45-50kt). This increased lift
will cause showers and storms to develop after midnight. Latest
HREF guidance indicated the storms will develop in eastern
Kansas and slide southeast into western and southern Missouri by
sunrise Monday morning. Forecast soundings show nearly 1500j/kg
of MU cape along with 2.00in PW values. This setup typically
favors a northwest to southeast axis band of training showers
and thunderstorms. HREF guidance is suggesting this to occur
however the location of the heaviest rainfall is always in
question and may not be known until the storms begin developing.
HREF guidance currently suggests the heavy rainfall axis along
and west of a Osceola to Springfield to Branson line. This is
where probs for 2 inches or more of rainfall is in the 30-50%
range. Latest LPMM data suggests an axis of 1-3 inches with
localized amounts up to 5 inches. Rainfall rates will be high
with this activity and could lead to flash flooding. WPC has
this area in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall. The limiting
factor for flash flooding is the dry antecedent conditions. Will
still need to monitor this closely given the magnitude of rain
that may fall in a short period of time.

Rain will begin to shift east/southeast by early afternoon as
the low level jet weakens. NBM high temperature spreads for
Springfield are again high with 25th percentile in the lower 80s
and the 75th percentile in the lower 90s. Given the likely
clouds will keep temps cooler however areas west of Springfield
could see late afternoon sunshine that boosts temps higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Monday night into Tuesday: Rising mid level heights will begin
to occur with the low level jet remaining weaker and slightly
farther north into Kansas. This still could cause another round
of showers and storms to move through the area with rain chances
in the 50-60% range Tuesday morning. Another large spread in
high temps for Tuesday as the location and extent of rainfall
will be a factor. Warmer air aloft will be moving into the area
from the southwest therefore a large spread in temps may occur
from southwest to northeast with potential for highs around 90
across the west and upper 70s in the northeast areas.

Wednesday through Saturday: Ensemble cluster analysis continues
to show the upper level high sliding further east into Arkansas
by Wednesday and Thursday which will begin to push the storm
track slightly north as well as moving warmer air into the
area. The area will still be close enough to the storm track to
have rain chances with the highest chances across central
Missouri. Mean 850mb temps look to climb back into the 22-24C
range which local conditional climatology studies would suggest
median high temps in the lower to middle 90s depending on cloud
cover. There is also decent agreement that dewpoints will
remain high (low 70s) given the position of the upper level high.
Therefore heat indices may reach 100-105 degrees from mid to
late week, especially across the western half of the area.
However, we will still need to monitor those rain chances which
will impact the magnitude of the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the 18z TAFS, some lower, but mainly mid level cloud cover
over the area. MCS remains south of the MO/AR border and we are
generally not expecting much coverage of showers/thunderstorms
until late tonight. As the low level jet sets up again tonight,
a thunderstorm complex is expected to develop and move across
southwest Missouri, affecting the TAF sites generally after
08-09z and continuing into the mid morning. Mainly expecting
MVFR conditions, however stronger storms with heavier rain will
drop into IFR at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg