![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
141 FXUS63 KSGF 111705 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium rain chances (15-30%) west of Highway 65 Today. High temperatures remaining below average. - Higher rain chances (70-90%) late tonight through Monday morning. 1-3 inches of rain along and west of Highway 65. Slight risk for excessive rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding. - Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees by Wednesday. Warmest temperatures west of Springfield. - Several additional rain chances this week. Highest rain chances shift northeast of Springfield by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A west to northwest upper level flow pattern was located across the central US. A 35kt low level jet has developed across the Texas panhandle and was nosing into western Oklahoma. Lift from this warm air advection has created scattered showers and storms across Oklahoma. Low level moisture continues to increase across our area (1.6in PW on 00z sounding) as surface high pressure begins to slide east. Temperatures remain slightly higher than 24hours ago thanks to cloud cover. Today: Low level jet will continue to increase and veer through sunrise and expecting more widespread activity to develop along the I-35 corridor of Kansas and Oklahoma. Additional, however more isolated activity will occur further east across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. As we head through the morning the low level jet will continue to veer and weaken however scattered showers and storms will continue west of Springfield, especially southwest of a Columbus, KS to Joplin to Cassville line. Rainfall amounts will likely remain less than 0.50 inch. Widespread clouds are likely today which will lead to another well below average day. The NBM has a decent spread in high temps for Springfield with the 25th percentile in the upper 70s and the 75th percentile in the lower 80s. Given the clouds have leaned towards the cooler numbers. Tonight through Monday: Short term guidance is in good agreement that a stronger low level jet will develop tonight from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas (45-50kt). This increased lift will cause showers and storms to develop after midnight. Latest HREF guidance indicated the storms will develop in eastern Kansas and slide southeast into western and southern Missouri by sunrise Monday morning. Forecast soundings show nearly 1500j/kg of MU cape along with 2.00in PW values. This setup typically favors a northwest to southeast axis band of training showers and thunderstorms. HREF guidance is suggesting this to occur however the location of the heaviest rainfall is always in question and may not be known until the storms begin developing. HREF guidance currently suggests the heavy rainfall axis along and west of a Osceola to Springfield to Branson line. This is where probs for 2 inches or more of rainfall is in the 30-50% range. Latest LPMM data suggests an axis of 1-3 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches. Rainfall rates will be high with this activity and could lead to flash flooding. WPC has this area in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall. The limiting factor for flash flooding is the dry antecedent conditions. Will still need to monitor this closely given the magnitude of rain that may fall in a short period of time. Rain will begin to shift east/southeast by early afternoon as the low level jet weakens. NBM high temperature spreads for Springfield are again high with 25th percentile in the lower 80s and the 75th percentile in the lower 90s. Given the likely clouds will keep temps cooler however areas west of Springfield could see late afternoon sunshine that boosts temps higher. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Monday night into Tuesday: Rising mid level heights will begin to occur with the low level jet remaining weaker and slightly farther north into Kansas. This still could cause another round of showers and storms to move through the area with rain chances in the 50-60% range Tuesday morning. Another large spread in high temps for Tuesday as the location and extent of rainfall will be a factor. Warmer air aloft will be moving into the area from the southwest therefore a large spread in temps may occur from southwest to northeast with potential for highs around 90 across the west and upper 70s in the northeast areas. Wednesday through Saturday: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show the upper level high sliding further east into Arkansas by Wednesday and Thursday which will begin to push the storm track slightly north as well as moving warmer air into the area. The area will still be close enough to the storm track to have rain chances with the highest chances across central Missouri. Mean 850mb temps look to climb back into the 22-24C range which local conditional climatology studies would suggest median high temps in the lower to middle 90s depending on cloud cover. There is also decent agreement that dewpoints will remain high (low 70s) given the position of the upper level high. Therefore heat indices may reach 100-105 degrees from mid to late week, especially across the western half of the area. However, we will still need to monitor those rain chances which will impact the magnitude of the heat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 For the 18z TAFS, some lower, but mainly mid level cloud cover over the area. MCS remains south of the MO/AR border and we are generally not expecting much coverage of showers/thunderstorms until late tonight. As the low level jet sets up again tonight, a thunderstorm complex is expected to develop and move across southwest Missouri, affecting the TAF sites generally after 08-09z and continuing into the mid morning. Mainly expecting MVFR conditions, however stronger storms with heavier rain will drop into IFR at times. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Lindenberg