883
FXUS63 KSGF 140520
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another heavier round of showers and thunderstorms tonight
  into Wednesday morning could cause flash flooding. A narrow
  corridor of 2-4 inches of rain with potential localized
  amounts up to 7 inches could occur however location of this
  corridor remains uncertain. Highest chances of rainfall
  (70-90%) are currently northeast of Springfield.

- Much warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with heat
  indices reaching 100-108 degrees west of Springfield. A heat
  advisory will be issued for the western half of the CWA for
  Wednesday.

- Potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday. Large hail
  and damaging wind would be the main severe weather risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show an upper level ridge axis from east Texas
into the Dakotas with a trough from WA/OR into NV.  Thunderstorm
complex was currently pushing through the CWA and should continue to
push all the way through this afternoon.  Cloud cover and extensive
precipitation shield extending behind the main line segment was
keeping temperatures in check and have lowered expectations for
highs this afternoon into the 70s in the north to the low/mid 80s in
the southwest where some partial clearing may take place.

Tonight - Wednesday: Upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area, however another low level jet is expected to develop late this
evening with additional shortwave energy riding the top of the
ridge.  Additional convection is expected to develop tonight into
Wednesday morning, with the main axis expected to be a bit further
north, and the highest QPF over central MO into our eastern CWA.  A
band of convection with heavy rain is expected to develop in this
area.  Some HREF members are projecting some fairly substantial
rainfall totals in the eastern Ozarks (4-7 inches) with means in the
1-3 inch range.  Likely hold off on any flood watch, but may need to
do a short fused one later as we see where this sets up tonight.

A warm front will also start pushing through the area on Wednesday.
Hot and humid conditions are expected southwest of the front with
heat index values in the 105-109 degrees over southwestern parts of
the CWA.  A heat advisory will be issued for these areas for
Wednesday afternoon into the early evening(noon to 9 pm).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Wednesday night - Thursday: Upper ridge axis will move east of the
area as an upper wave pushes across the plains and into the
Mississippi valley region.  This will help to bring a front into the
area and there may be enough instability and shear for some strong
to severe storms on Thursday.  Heat index values will again likely
climb into the 100 to 107 degree range during the afternoon ahead of
the front and another advisory may be needed for Thursday.

Friday into early next week: The upper level wave will push east and
carve out a deeper trough as the ridge retrogrades westward and
amplifies over the southern and central plains.  We`ll be on the
eastern periphery of the ridge axis and west of the trough which
will give us northwest flow and the potential for additional
convection through this time period along with temperatures which
are more seasonal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of
SGF through at least 09z then moving east. JLN and BBG will
likely remain dry. BBG will continue to experience LIFR ceilings
through this morning before lifting by mid morning. Winds will
gradually turn from the east southeast to the south during the
day with increased gusts at JLN.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104.
     Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT early this morning through this
     afternoon for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield