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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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437 FXUS61 KRNK 010524 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 124 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes today, bringing less humid air. Dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the 4th of July, along with a chance for storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Humidity lowers today. Getting a few light returns on radar over the piedmont and portions of southwest VA, along the last vestiges of the front and higher humidity. Anticipate for lower humidity to slide in from the northwest through the morning with clearing skies. Fog may be an issue across portions of southside VA into the NC piedmont and across the river valleys in the mountains, but latest trends keep it isolated/patchy. High pressure will bring a change in airmass today. A relief for most from the high dewpoints. Dewpoints are expected to fall at least 20 degrees, with some 40s possible by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will also come down...a pleasant way to start the first day of July, with mainly sunny skies. Highs will will be close to or about 5 degrees below normal, with mid to upper 70s/80 in the mountains, to lower to mid 80s east. Tonight, a few deeper valley locations like Burkes Garden and Lewisburg, WV could sneak into the 40s, but most Will have 50s. May be able give that A/C a rest. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1: Heat ramps up heading towards Independence Day The first half of next week will be characterized by surface high pressure an intensifying subtropical ridge growing out of the southern plains and covering most of eastern and southern CONUS. This will result in daily increases in temperature as well as dewpoint. Highs on Monday will grow from the mid 80s/ upper 70s, and become 80s and low 90s by Wednesday July 3. Summer will make its presence known. All of this ridging and high pressure will keep skies clear and prevent shower formation, so shade and remaining indoors will be the only reprieve from the heat. This period of high temperatures and no cloud cover will only serve to worsen the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions we`re experiencing in the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1: Independence Day hot with potential for storms 2: Unsettled second half of the week Independence Day (Thursday) will likely be the hottest day of the week, and even the hottest of the season so far. Highs east of the Blue Ridge will be well into the 90s. Heat indices towards central VA and Southside VA will likely exceed 100F for a few hours in the afternoon Thursday and Friday. At the same time a front looks to finally break through the ridging over the southern CONUS, bringing the next shot of showers and storms since this weekend. Following the ridge weakening and surface high pressure being displaced, several waves with indeterminate timing will keep showers and storms in the forecast from Thursday on through the weekend. Timing of showers will be monitored closely as we forecast for holiday activities. Confidence is increasing for stormy conditions on Independence Day to potentially disrupt activities. After Independence Day, temperatures could moderate a bit, but still expecting temperatures and heat indices well above normal. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Monday... Mainly VFR expected through the period, though some MVFR fog possible at DAN/BLF/LWB and BCB depending on how quickly the dry air moves in vs temps. For now have tempo 3-5sm. A wind shift will take place this morning, becoming northerly...and remaining out of the north or northeast Monday... generally 10 kts or less. A few gusts 15-20kts are possible east of the mountains. Confidence in the above scenario is moderate to high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Tuesday-Wednesday appear to be VFR as high pressure moves across the area. Storm chances increase by Thursday into Friday ahead of a front so sub-VFR possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...PM/WP