Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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132 FXUS61 KRNK 020246 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1046 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather through Wednesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the 4th of July, along with a chance for storms for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1045 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Lower humidity. 2) Cooler tonight. No changes needed to the forecast for tonight and Tuesday. Previous Discussion: High pressure continues to build into the forecast area from the north providing significantly lower dewpoints. As the sun goes down watch for temperatures to tumble quickly given the lack of moisture in the air. Clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling overnight, lows dipping into the 40s in the mountain valleys, and 50s in the piedmont. Guidance for Burkes Garden is 43 degrees for a low temperature. It should be a very good night to give the A/C a rest and open some windows. Tuesday will feature another dry day under sunny skies and low dewpoints. After a cool start, it should heat up fairly quickly with afternoon highs near the seasonal norm. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1: Increasingly hot through the week 2: Storms return Thursday on Independence Day A strong subtropical ridge slowly moving east from the Southern Plains will extend its influence over our region throughout the middle of this week. By Thursday temperatures will have risen well above normal, and humidity will have returned as well. This is likely to result in heat indices near central Virginia in excess of 100F on Independence Day. Wednesday highs in the 80s for most and just into the 90s in Southside. Independence Day will feel almost sweltering pumping highs into the mid to upper 80s for all but the highest reaches of the mountains in our area, and into the upper 90s toward central VA (Lynchburg, Danville, etc). No rain is expected Wednesday. A front will begin to break down the ridging and force it east, bringing a return of showers and storms for Thursday afternoon and evening. Confidence in storms in that timeframe is increasing, and may put a damper of firework related plans. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1: Unsettled with storms through the weekend 2: Heat and humidity sticks around A subtropical ridge advecting warm humid air into the area will continue to slide east while simultaneously weakening over the weekend. At the same time, a front will wash out or stall over the Mid-Atlantic, allowing a few waves of energy to pass along it and maintain an unsettled environment with scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Until the aforementioned ridge moves offshore, it will continue to be hot and humid. This will likely be the case until Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Monday... Widespread VFR is expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Only exception may be some late night fog along the rivers within the mountain valleys. Winds will be from an easterly direction through the day Tuesday, generally under 10 kts. Confidence in the above scenario is moderate to high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Tuesday Night-Wednesday appear to be VFR as high pressure moves across the area. Storm chances increase by Thursday into Friday ahead of a front so sub-VFR possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...PM