Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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183 FXUS61 KRNK 020621 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 221 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather through Wednesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the 4th of July, along with a chance for storms for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) Confidence is high in near normal temperatures today. 2) Dry weather continues. It is a mostly clear night with high pressure centered over NY State, and extending over the Mid Atlantic region. This hybrid wedging will continue to build down along the spine of the Appalachians this morning before shifting its center off the southern New England coast tonight. This will allow northerly winds this morning to turn easterly today and more southeasterly tonight. Aloft, ridging builds in with rising heights. 850mb temperatures increase, especially over the mountains. This combined with sunny skies will result in mid to upper 80s over the mountains, and upper 80s to low 90s for the Piedmont. It will remain relatively dry and comfortable feeling as far as humidity for today. Expect some passing cirrus, but certainly no showers. Tonight`s lows will be in the 50s to low 60s, with another night of moderate radiational cooling. May see some increase in clouds over the Piedmont as moisture will be on the uptick, with an increase in relative humidity there as well. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1: Increasingly hot through the workweek 2: Storms return Thursday on Independence Day Surface high pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday. As this system moves off the coast, southeast flow will increase, bring Atlantic moisture into the area and slowly raise the humidity levels. Temperatures Wednesday will run a few degrees above normal with highs in the 80s across the mountains and upper 80s to lower 90s in the foothills and piedmont. A subtropical ridge will move east over the southeastern states Thursday July 4th. This system has a history of bring sweltering heat and humidity to the area it covers. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge and low to mid 90s east. These temperatures are around 5F-8F warmer than normal. Heat index values will run in the 97F-103F range in the east and upper 80s to mid 90s west for a few hours in the afternoon. A disturbance tracking on the northern rings of this ridge could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, disrupting Independence Day celebrations and fireworks. The highest probability of storms are north of Highway 460. Hot and humid conditions continue into Friday with another round of afternoon and evening storms. The highest probability of storms will be along and west of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1: Unsettled with storms into early next week 2: Heat and humidity sticks around this weekend The subtropical ridge is expected to move off the southeast coast this weekend. A cold front will move across the mountains and stall over the piedmont Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for areawide showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Hot and humid conditions remain through the weekend. Temperatures cool off a bit Monday and Tuesday, but the humidity will remain elevated. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... Widespread VFR is expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Only exception may be some late night fog along the rivers within the mountain valleys. Winds were light and variable this morning, but should have an easterly component today, becoming more SE tonight as high pressure to our north moves SE and offshore. Speeds should generally stay at 5 to 10 kts, lower during the overnight hours. Confidence in the above scenario is high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Terminals in the area should remain VFR with high pressure nearby through Wednesday night/early Thursday. MVFR conditions may develop by Thursday morning, with an increase in TSRA/SHRA chances Thursday through Saturday ahead of a front. Ceilings will lower to IFR/LIFR during this period. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...SH/PM