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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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056 FXUS61 KRLX 130557 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 157 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. The next system approaches late week, with increasing warmth and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 AM Tuesday... After a moisture-starved mid/upper-level short wave trough brings early morning clouds, and spotty rain showers and/or sprinkles, the clouds give way to an afternoon cumulus field that will dissipate toward sunset, as high pressure regains control. This will set the stage for a clear, calm and cool night, allowing for river valley steam fog. Central guidance reflects highs near normal and lows still a little below normal, and the forecast reflects slightly lower lows in the cooler valleys. In the meantime, lowland highs in the mid 80s and lowland dew points in the 50s spells minimum RH percentages well down in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1200 PM Monday... Overall, mainly dry weather is expected in the short term period. Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest and trough along the east coast. Temperatures will slowly increase during the period as ridge builds eastward, with high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands. There could be an isolated shower or storm both days from combination of heating and passing weak waves, but more likely than not, the dry weather will continue for much of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday... Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area Friday through the weekend as an upper trough/low approach the area from the west, with decreasing coverage as we head into Sunday and upper trough moves east, and surface cold front slowly pushes through the area. Cooler and less humid air should take hold, but it could still remain unsettled as we remain under the influence of the trough into next week. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 AM Tuesday... A moisture-starved upper level disturbance brings early morning altocumulus and high stratocumulus, but nothing more than a spotty light rain shower or sprinkle that will not produce any restrictions. Fog was coded up for EKN before dawn banking on the idea the cloud cover will be high and thin enough to allow it there. The clouds will evolve into an afternoon cumulus field that will then dissipate toward sunset, as high pressure regains control. Surface flow will be calm by night and light and variable, mainly north to northwest, by day, all beneath light north flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The extent of fog overnight overnight into early Tuesday morning may vary from the forecast. Clouds may lower and thicken enough to preclude fog at EKN. However, the table reflects guidance is more bullish on fog than is the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/13/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM