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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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232 FXUS61 KRLX 132315 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 715 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing humidity and rain chance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 715 PM Tuesday... Dew points ended up being a degrees lower than anticipated this afternoon, so incorporated that trend into this evening. Adjusted cloud coverage slightly as well heading into tonight as satellite trends depict diurnally driven cumulus now diminishing. This should allow for sufficient radiational cooling late tonight for mountain river valley fog production. As of 115 PM Tuesday... A high pressure system will bring dry weather tonight and Wednesday. Some river valley fog is possible tonight, more likely in and near the mountains. Even though we will see a slight increase in afternoon temperatures on Wednesday, there will be a lack of humidity as dewpoints will remain in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1203 PM Tuesday... The region will be under the influence of high pressure Thursday with a brief ridge building aloft. Most of Thursday should be rain free, but high clouds will begin to approach from the west late in the day ahead of a mid-level shortwave and associated warm front. This will bring shower chances back into the region for Thursday night. Friday will bring plenty of clouds, along with more numerous showers as a warm front slides through the area. A couple of thunderstorms will also be possible, but severe weather chances appear to be low due to limited instability. High temperatures will likely be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands and the lower to middle 80s in the mountains both Thursday and Friday, which is slightly above average for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1204 PM Tuesday... Models are showing an upper-level low spinning over the lower Great Lakes this weekend and into early next week. This would correspond to an unsettled weather pattern across our area as several mid-level impulses drop into the region from the northwest. Rain chances appear most likely Saturday into Sunday. Lower PoPs are forecast for early next week due to more uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern. With an upper-level low overhead and cooler temperatures aloft, we expect near to slightly below normal high temperatures across our area for the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 715 PM Tuesday... Afternoon cumulus field has begun to diminish at the time of issuance with the loss of daytime heating. Clearing skies tonight may insinuate river valley fog in the mountains into Tuesday morning, especially for EKN. Fog will quickly erode after sunrise and give way to another quiet day under the influence of high pressure. Calm winds overnight will then grow to be light and variable on Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of dense river valley fog late tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MEK