861
FXUS61 KRLX 301826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today. Cooler and dry to start
the work week, then temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance
for rain arrives Wednesday through the Independence Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

This afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms remain
possible ahead of and along a cold front that is currently
making its way across West Virginia. Meanwhile, to the west of
the Ohio River, post-frontal northwest flow is beginning to
transport drier air into the area.

The front will exit to the east this evening while high pressure
builds in from the north, resulting in tranquil weather and
clearing skies for tonight. Overnight temperatures will be much
cooler, with lows expected to range from low to mid 50s in the
lowlands and mid 40s to low 50s along the mountains.

High pressure remains in control at the surface on Monday, with dry
air and unseasonably mild temperatures making for a sunny and rather
pleasant day. High temperatures are expected to remain in the
mid to upper 70s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Quiet weather continues through the first half of the work week
under a dominating southern stream ridge. After a pleasant day
of unseasonably cool temperatures on Monday, pressure height
rises will inflict a warming trend to ensue while the ridge
retains residency over the southeast and up into the Ohio
Valley.

The ridge begins to flatten and shift off the Carolina coast on
Wednesday, making room for a northern stream disturbance to
slide down from Canada and driving a surface cold front into the
region. The chance for showers and storms increases by the later
half of the day Wednesday and into the overnight hours ahead of
the 4th of July holiday. The front is progged to slow down upon
arrival and likely hovering overhead for the days to come.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Unsettled weather looks to fester on the 4th of July and into
the holiday weekend as a cold front, first mentioned in the
short term period, stalls and wobbles over the area for an
extended amount of time. This will promote daily chances for
showers and possible convection through the entire forecast
period. Temperatures on our side of the Appalachians will remain
closer to seasonable for this time of year, while our neighbors
to the east will find themselves within the warm sector of the
front and its parent low, causing highs to soar well up into the
90s for the Mid-Atlantic region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

Sub-VFR ceilings and isolated to scattered showers and storms
remain possible ahead of a cold front this afternoon, while
cloud cover continues to scatter out behind the front. VFR is
expected to return to all sites by the end of the day. While
cool and clear conditions favor fog development, enough flow
could persist through the night to keep fog from forming in all
but the deeper, more sheltered valleys. Some restrictions could
also be possible in low stratus along the mountains. VFR
conditions are then expected for Monday courtesy of high
pressure.

Periodic 15-20kt gusts and a transition to a northwest wind
direction will occur following the frontal passage today. Light,
flow is expected to be out of the north overnight and then takes on
a north to northeast direction for Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Periodic restrictions could occur in any
storms this afternoon. Fog could be more widespread than
expected if winds decouple tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB