![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
631 FXUS61 KRLX 140643 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing humidity and likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Early morning fog formation in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains is more likely then previous mornings of late, owing to a dearth of stratocumulus. An afternoon cumulus field may linger as patchy stratocumulus after sunset, making subsequent overnight valley fog formation less likely. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8. However, dew points remain low, generally in the 50s, and another comfortably cool night for sleeping is on tap. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... High pressure lingers on Thursday while a developing low pressure system tracks towards the Great Lakes. Dry conditions should persist through the day, then precipitation chances seep into the CWA overnight as the system lifts a warm front north towards the area. Moisture is expected to increase as the front progresses through the CWA on Friday, allowing more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to blossom during the day. With precipitable water values climbing to around two inches, heavy downpours are likely in the afternoon and evening. Given the dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not anticipated outside of localized poor drainage issues. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected to occur on Thursday, when highs rise into the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. Precipitation and cloud cover should then result in highs that are several degrees cooler for Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... A cold front crosses the area early this weekend while the parent upper low spins over the Great Lakes region. Rain and storms are expected to develop in the warm and moist environment ahead of the front, with most robust activity Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure starts to edge in behind the front; however, shortwaves pivoting around a lingering upper trough are likely to instigate additional shower and storm activity at times early next week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal during the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... High pressure passing north of the area continues the mainly VFR conditions, the exception being early morning fog formation in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains, more likely than previous mornings owing to a dearth of stratocumulus. An afternoon cumulus field may linger as patchy stratocumulus after sunset, making subsequent overnight valley fog formation less likely. Surface flow will be calm by night and light and variable, mainly north, by day. Light north flow aloft veers to light east late in the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of overnight and early morning dense river valley fog could vary. The table reflects guidance is more bullish on fog than is the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/14/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M M L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...TRM