![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
401 FXUS61 KRLX 170536 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 136 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A combination of a warm front and cold front courtesy of an upper-level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1045 PM Friday... Tweaked POPs upward over the SW part of the CWA to account for shower activity approaching the border of our KY counties. No other changes made. As of 830 PM Friday... Made major changes to POPs, especially through the overnight period, to reflect much lower rain chances over the southern part of the CWA, while maintaining at least Chance POPs across the north. Still expecting a bit of a lull in POPs area-wide tomorrow morning, with the next round of likely showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Made some adjustments to cloud cover to reflect POP changes, but no major changes. As of 145 PM Friday... The area remains under the warm sector of a low pressure system moving east across the Great Lakes tonight. Hi-res CAMs indicate possible weak convection tonight, enhanced by upper level forcing. An associated cold front will arrive to our west Saturday morning, and move slowly east into Saturday night. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will be likely, some strong to severe, mainly during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Stronger storms could produce heavy downpours and repetitive precipitation over the same areas could lead to minor flooding problems. The entire area continues outlooked by WPC under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday. SPC continues with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm for the entire area for Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1210 PM Friday... Upper trough will continue to gradually move east through the area Saturday night into Sunday. A front associated with surface low across the north will move towards the area Saturday evening/night, helping to reinvigorate showers and storms, some of which could organize and become strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat at the start of the period. Storms will contain brief heavy downpours, and could create a localized flooding issue, mainly in low lying/poor drainage areas. Additional showers and storms are expected on Sunday as the upper trough continues to move east across the area, particularly during peak heating hours. However, the threat for severe is expected to be to the east of the area, closer to the vicinity of the front. Unsettled weather continues into Monday as area remains under the influence of the upper trough, with showers and storms, particularly during peak heating hours. High temperatures during the period should remain below normal, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the lowlands, and 60s to 70s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1210 PM Friday... Conditions start to improve as we progress into the middle of the week, as high pressure briefly builds into the area, and the upper trough moves east. This will result in dry conditions taking hold, and temperatures near to or slightly below normal for this time of year. By the end of the week, heights will rebound across the area, with continued dry conditions, and a return of heat. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 AM Saturday... Pop up showers continue to develop early this morning ahead of a cold front progged to cross later this weekend. Low level stratus also forming this morning may cast sub-IFR ceilings through the region within the next few hours. A brief period of dry weather should transpire after daybreak this morning with clearing skies, but showers and storms then reignite heading into the afternoon. VCTS was included at all TAF sites with this issuance later today. Some of these storms could become strong to possibly severe, capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy downpours. Winds will be out of the southwest today steadily around 5kts, but occasional gusts to 10-15kts may be observed outside of strong thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions due to low stratus may vary from forecast early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H M M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR/LIFR conditions possible within showers and storms this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MEK