401
FXUS61 KRLX 170536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of a warm front and cold front courtesy of an
upper-level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms
tonight through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1045 PM Friday...

Tweaked POPs upward over the SW part of the CWA to account for
shower activity approaching the border of our KY counties. No
other changes made.


As of 830 PM Friday...

Made major changes to POPs, especially through the overnight
period, to reflect much lower rain chances over the southern
part of the CWA, while maintaining at least Chance POPs across
the north. Still expecting a bit of a lull in POPs area-wide
tomorrow morning, with the next round of likely showers and
storms tomorrow afternoon. Made some adjustments to cloud cover
to reflect POP changes, but no major changes.


As of 145 PM Friday...

The area remains under the warm sector of a low pressure system
moving east across the Great Lakes tonight. Hi-res CAMs indicate
possible weak convection tonight, enhanced by upper level
forcing. An associated cold front will arrive to our west
Saturday morning, and move slowly east into Saturday night.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will be likely, some strong
to severe, mainly during the afternoon hours on Saturday.
Stronger storms could produce heavy downpours and repetitive
precipitation over the same areas could lead to minor flooding
problems. The entire area continues outlooked by WPC under a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday. SPC continues
with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm for the entire
area for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM Friday...

Upper trough will continue to gradually move east through the area
Saturday night into Sunday. A front associated with surface low
across the north will move towards the area Saturday evening/night,
helping to reinvigorate showers and storms, some of which could
organize and become strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat at
the start of the period. Storms will contain brief heavy downpours,
and could create a localized flooding issue, mainly in low
lying/poor drainage areas. Additional showers and storms are
expected on Sunday as the upper trough continues to move east across
the area, particularly during peak heating hours. However, the
threat for severe is expected to be to the east of the area, closer
to the vicinity of the front. Unsettled weather continues into
Monday as area remains under the influence of the upper trough, with
showers and storms, particularly during peak heating hours. High
temperatures during the period should remain below normal, with
highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the
lowlands, and 60s to 70s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Friday...

Conditions start to improve as we progress into the middle of the
week, as high pressure briefly builds into the area, and the upper
trough moves east. This will result in dry conditions taking hold,
and temperatures near to or slightly below normal for this time of
year. By the end of the week, heights will rebound across the area,
with continued dry conditions, and a return of heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...

Pop up showers continue to develop early this morning ahead of a
cold front progged to cross later this weekend. Low level
stratus also forming this morning may cast sub-IFR ceilings
through the region within the next few hours.

A brief period of dry weather should transpire after daybreak
this morning with clearing skies, but showers and storms then
reignite heading into the afternoon. VCTS was included at all
TAF sites with this issuance later today. Some of these storms
could become strong to possibly severe, capable of producing
strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.

Winds will be out of the southwest today steadily around 5kts,
but occasional gusts to 10-15kts may be observed outside of
strong thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions
due to low stratus may vary from forecast early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR/LIFR conditions possible within showers and storms this
weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK