Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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587 FXUS61 KRLX 021717 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 106 PM Tuesday... Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday, mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys. Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more stable atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday with cold front. * There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday. Area of high pressure over the southern CONUS allowing a ridge pattern to sit over the area. Dry weather will stick around into early Wednesday afternoon. The ridge will then shrink southward with an approaching shortwave/cold front from the west. PoPs then increase gradually from west to east across Ohio through the afternoon; spreading across much of the forecast area into the evening. The front then stalls Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms carrying over into Thursday as it sits in our vicinity. There is a marginal risk for severe weather across SE Ohio and much of Kentucky for Wednesday into Thursday associated with this system. The main risk will be damaging winds, but heavy downpours remain possible with precipitable water reaching 2 inches or higher across the area. Isolated or localized flash flooding could be possible as a result. Temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s across the lowlands on Wednesday, mid 70s to upper 80s are expected for the mountains. Slightly less warmer temperatures on Thursday with most of the area staying in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... The previously mentioned stalled front will gain some steam late Thursday, pulling off to the north and subsequently taking PoPs with it. Another cold front looks to swing down with a low pressure center that will drop out of Canada into the upper midwest/Great Lakes area. In turn, the start of the weekend looks unsettled, but a dry period may emerge from Sunday into Monday with high pressure. Temperatures look to remain hot and above the seasonable normal into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 101 PM Tuesday... Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the 18Z TAF period for most locations, but the sheltered mountain valleys may see some IFR dense fog overnight, mainly from 6-12Z Wednesday. IFR fog has been included at KEKN during this timeframe. Winds will remain out of the southeast for the remainder of the day, with occasional gusts to 20 kts at some terminals. Winds will gradually diminish overnight for most locations, but KBKW can still see some occasional gusts 15-20 kts overnight. Winds will then become more south-southwesterly Wednesday, becoming gusty at times during the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing overnight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JMC