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FNUS75 KRIW 181123
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Fish Creek Fire...USDA
National Weather Service Riverton WY
523 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Increased monsoonal moisture will keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler today, with humidity only dropping to around 30 percent
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
area by around 1500 with chances then lasting through the evening.
Strong and erratic outflow wind gusting 35 to 45 mph will again
be possible with this activity.

Monday will see similar conditions though with a slightly better
chance of a wetting rain.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms after
1200.
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light becoming west around 8 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......South around 5 mph becoming west around 15 mph
after 1200.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL increasing to 8500 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph becoming west 12 to 17 mph
after 1100.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor increasing to very good after 1400.
Haines Index........3 to 4.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  25  30  5   15  15  20  25  35  35  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........                    ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).5   5   5   5   10  15  15  15  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............46  50  55  59  62  64  66  67  68  68  68
RH..............87  82  71  61  54  49  45  42  38  36  37
20 FT wind dir..NE  SE  S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   4   6   7   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.4           6   7   10  12  12  10  10  10
Ridge wind dir..NE  SE  S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Ridge wind spd..10  5   5   10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.5 1.0 2.5 4.5 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.5 8.0 8.0
Transp wind dir.SE  S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   9   12  14  16  17  16  16  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10002   2   5   20  43  71  96  116 117 114 95

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy (35-60 percent).
Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms before midnight.
CWR.................4 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......South 10 to 15 mph becoming east to northeast
around 10 mph after 2000.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL decreasing to around 500 ft AGL
after 2000.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph until 2100, then south 7
                    to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to poor after 1900.
Haines Index........3 to 4.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  35  40  55  55  50  55  45  60  45  55  45
Weather cov.....            SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............66  63  60  55  53  52  52  51  51  50  48  48
RH..............39  45  51  63  69  74  72  74  74  77  81  80
20 FT wind dir..SW  SE  N   E   E   SE  NE  NE  NE  E   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   5   3   3   5   2   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  6   6   6   6   4   4   6       4
Ridge wind dir..SW  SE  N   E   E   SE  NE  NE  NE  E   N   N
Ridge wind spd..15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.13  10  10  10  10  8   9   10  8   8   8   7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100060  20  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 60 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light becoming southwest around 7 mph after
1100. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
any thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......East 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest 10 to 15
mph by 1100.
Mixing height.......Below 500 ft AGL increasing to 7000 ft AGL
by 1200.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph until 1200, then west 13 to
                    14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor increasing to good by 1200.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  55  45  40  20  25  25  35  50  60  60  55
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   60  60  60  60  60  60
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............48  48  51  55  58  61  64  64  64  64  61  59
RH..............82  81  78  69  61  54  49  49  50  50  57  63
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   2   3   3   4   6   6   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.4       4   4   6   7   10  10  10  10  10  7
Ridge wind dir..E   E   SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Ridge wind spd..10  5   10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   7   8   8   9   12  13  14  14  14  14  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10002   1   2   7   23  51  79  75  65  54  42  28

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest 4 to 8 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. South
winds around 7 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. South
winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Myers
Requested by...Dana Ensminger
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2420486.0/RIW
.DELDT 08/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dana.ensminger@usda.gov