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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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607 FXUS65 KRIW 141033 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 433 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another active day today with a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms. - Trending warmer and drier starting Thursday and especially Friday and Saturday as ridging builds northward into Wyoming. - Elevated to possibly critical fire weather is possible Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Other than a couple of stray showers, things are fairly quiet right now. However, this day is looking much like the previous couple in that we will have another day of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Coverage may be a bit less than yesterday though. Precipitable waters are shown to be about 10 to 20 percent less than yesterday for example. All areas will still have a chance though. And with the area in a marginal risk, some storms will have the potential to be strong to marginally severe. The biggest threat looks to be strong wind gusts, but small hail and brief heavy rain are also possible. Storms may end earlier than yesterday in the west than previous days though, as drier air begins to punch in from the south and west. And this will bring a change in the pattern somewhat. Ridging will begin to build northward on Thursday and begin a transition to a warmer and drier pattern. But notice the modifier, drier, not dry. There will still be a few storms around on Thursday and Thursday evening as a subtle shortwave moves across the area. However, the forecast for Thursday evening is probably the absolute wettest it will be. Our blend of models has been running a bit wet the past several days and trend has been drier. My gut feeling is that it will be drier than indicated. This even more so for Friday, as precipitable waters fall to as much as 50 percent of normal in some locations. I could see this day being completely dry except for a stray shower or storm in the mountains. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with some lower elevations seeing high temperatures back into the 90s for Friday and Saturday. And this brings another question for Friday and Saturday, the possibility of elevated to critical fire weather for these days. The humidity looks like a good possibility to be there. However, at this point the wind looks borderline as the ridge building northward but be close enough to keep the wind moderate. Still time to watch it though. If the winds trend up, we may need fire weather watches for on or both of these afternoons in areas prone to southwest flow, like Natrona and Sweetwater Counties. The other question is convection starting Saturday. Just enough moisture may creep northward for a few thunderstorms in southwestern Wyoming on Saturday evening. A more defined shortwave and deeper moisture returning should bring a better chance of showers and storms for Sunday. Heading into early next week, the pattern looks to have ridging over the area, keeping temperatures somewhat above normal. There will be a couple of chances of convection. However, guidance is more divergent with timing of the shortwaves so details are difficult to resolve at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 432 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Patchy low clouds and fog will bring occasional IFR ceilings and visibility the western terminals through around 15Z this morning. The next round of showers and thunderstorms will move in to northwestern Wyoming around 12Z, once again becoming widespread after 18Z. Similar to previous days, all terminals will carry a chance of thunderstorms for at least part of the afternoon. Strong outflow wind gusts over 25 knots and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity. Convection will start to decrease 00-03Z and end by 06Z Thursday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 No concerns today or tomorrow except for lightning strikes. Concerns are mainly for Friday and Saturday as humidity drops below 15 percent and an increasing southwest wind may bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather to the southern half of the area on Friday and/or Saturday afternoons. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings FIRE WEATHER...Hattings