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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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110 FXUS62 KRAH 190549 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the region this afternoon. A cooler and less humid air mass will settle into the area tonight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Sunday... Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms persist across the eastern two-thirds of the area at this hour, primarily producing damaging straight line winds and isolated microbursts within a severe thunderstorm watch. CINH is developing areawide, and SBCAPE has dropped back to aob 1000 J/kg in the W where more stable air is moving in, but elevated moderate CAPE remains over the E where effective bulk shear is modest at 20-30 kt but with robust DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, helping to fuel the severe winds. Will follow the areas of convection eastward through the rest of the CWA with high pops there for a few more hours, ending W to E from now through about 05z. Sct-bkn multi-layer clouds, mostly mid clouds, will linger through the night within cyclonic steering flow in the broad upper trough axis, and patchy fog and stratus remain possible mainly over central and E sections, although confidence in this is not high. Expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH Earlier discussion from 250 PM: An unseasonably strong (~3 S.D. below normal) amplifying upper-level trough will dig SEWD into the region through tonight and through the day on Monday. At the surface, a pre-frontal sfc trough which has drifted east into the western Piedmont, will get overtaken by an accompanying cold front, that`s currently making it`s way through eastern TN and KY, during the evening and overnight hours. Not much has changed in the thinking of the forecast and severe threat later today. An agitated cu field INVOF the pre-frontal is appearing ripe for some convection. Meanwhile, we are seeing thunderstorm activity getting underway over the mtns. Strong daytime heating, featuring afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s north to lower 90s, has led to development of moderate to strong destabilization area-wide, maximized over the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. Scattered showers and storms are expected to become widespread and move east into the western Piedmont between 18-21z. Thereafter, convection will have a propensity to become better organized as the storms progress eastward into the central Piedmont and western Sandhills between 20-00z, and then across eastern Sandhills and coastal plain counties between 23-03z. Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will favor multi-cellular severe threat, with damaging winds the primary threat. The severe threat appears greatest between 4 to 10 pm. Additionally, given recent wetness and with area streams and creeks still running high, the convective downpours could also lead to some instances of flash flooding, especially in poor-drainage and urban areas. Bulk of rain and convection will exit east of the area between at or before midnight with mostly dry conditions thereafter. Areas of fog and/or stratus are possible, mainly across coastal plain, just ahead the cold front moving through the area. Lows ranging from mid 60s north to lower 70s SE. $$ .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Sunday... Aloft, while the longwave trough sits over the region, a s/w disturbance will move through the trough and over central NC Mon aft/eve. At the surface, the pre-frontal trough will remain over the area Mon, while the effective cold front moves in from the northwest during the day. The cold front should push quickly through the area Mon evening, with the cooler, drier air filtering in behind it Mon night. Highs should be in the mid (NW) to upper (SE) 80s, with lows generally in the low 60s NW to upper 60s SE. Ahead of the front, PWATs should range from 1.5 NW to 1.8 east and SE. MUCAPE will generally peak in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range, with effective shear in the 20-30 kts range Mon aft/eve. The SPC has most of central NC in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Mon, with the primary threat of isolated severe wind gusts during the afternoon/early evening, generally along the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Troughing over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced with a piece of northern stream energy by Tues morning which will act to kick a compact shortwave and lingering mid-level moisture from the Mid- Atlantic into the Northeast by Tues morning. Convergent mid-level flow on the backside of the longwave trough will direct subsidence and a pocket of very dry mid-level air over through the Ohio Valley and into Mid-Atlantic by Wed morning; persisting through much of the work week. At the surface this translates to an unseasonably strong area of pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley slowly sliding east over and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridging through the southern Appalachians and into the Southeast into the weekend. The result of the above pattern will be a prolonged period of fall- like conditions through the work week with highs in the low/mid 80s (equivalent of mid-September) and lows falling into the low 60s (equivalent to mid/late September). Given the clear skies overnight and surface high pressure nearly overhead favoring strong radiational cooling overnight, low/mid 50s may be possible in the Piedmont outside of urban areas. Some isolated shower/storm activity may be possible towards the coast edging into Sampson County by the weekend as an inverted trough axis hedges near the coast and mid 60s dew points return to the far southeast, but other than that, expect dry conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 148 AM Monday... Generally VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with the exceptions of possible brief MVFR fog in the east between 09z and 13z- and a chance of brief MVFR thunderstorms this afternoon between 18z and 23z. Looking beyond 00z Mon, the chance for scattered showers and storms will continue through mid evening Mon, with dry weather expected after midnight as a cold front pushes to our east. VFR conditions should then return tonight and dominate through Fri under incoming high pressure. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield