110
FXUS62 KRAH 190549
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
149 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move
offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the
region this afternoon. A cooler and less humid air mass will settle
into the area tonight through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Sunday...

Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms persist across the
eastern two-thirds of the area at this hour, primarily producing
damaging straight line winds and isolated microbursts within a
severe thunderstorm watch. CINH is developing areawide, and SBCAPE
has dropped back to aob 1000 J/kg in the W where more stable air is
moving in, but elevated moderate CAPE remains over the E where
effective bulk shear is modest at 20-30 kt but with robust DCAPE
over 1000 J/kg, helping to fuel the severe winds. Will follow the
areas of convection eastward through the rest of the CWA with high
pops there for a few more hours, ending W to E from now through
about 05z. Sct-bkn multi-layer clouds, mostly mid clouds, will
linger through the night within cyclonic steering flow in the broad
upper trough axis, and patchy fog and stratus remain possible mainly
over central and E sections, although confidence in this is not
high. Expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 250 PM: An unseasonably strong (~3 S.D.
below normal) amplifying upper-level trough will dig SEWD into the
region through tonight and through the day on Monday. At the
surface, a pre-frontal sfc trough which has drifted east into the
western Piedmont, will get overtaken by an accompanying cold front,
that`s currently making it`s way through eastern TN and KY, during
the evening and overnight hours.

Not much has changed in the thinking of the forecast and severe
threat later today. An agitated cu field INVOF the pre-frontal is
appearing ripe for some convection. Meanwhile, we are seeing
thunderstorm activity getting underway over the mtns.

Strong daytime heating, featuring afternoon highs in the mid/upper
80s north to lower 90s, has led to development of moderate to strong
destabilization area-wide, maximized over the Sandhills and southern
coastal plain. Scattered showers and storms are expected to become
widespread and move east into the western Piedmont between 18-21z.
Thereafter, convection will have a propensity to become better
organized as the storms progress eastward into the central Piedmont
and western Sandhills between 20-00z, and then across eastern
Sandhills and coastal plain counties between 23-03z. Deep layer
shear of 30-35 kts will favor multi-cellular severe threat, with
damaging winds the primary threat. The severe threat appears
greatest between 4 to 10 pm.

Additionally, given recent wetness and with area streams and creeks
still running high, the convective downpours could also lead to some
instances of flash flooding, especially in poor-drainage and urban
areas.

Bulk of rain and convection will exit east of the area between at or
before midnight with mostly dry conditions thereafter. Areas of fog
and/or stratus are possible, mainly across coastal plain, just ahead
the cold front moving through the area. Lows ranging from mid 60s
north to lower 70s SE.

$$

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Aloft, while the longwave trough sits over the region, a s/w
disturbance will move through the trough and over central NC Mon
aft/eve. At the surface, the pre-frontal trough will remain over the
area Mon, while the effective cold front moves in from the northwest
during the day. The cold front should push quickly through the area
Mon evening, with the cooler, drier air filtering in behind it Mon
night. Highs should be in the mid (NW) to upper (SE) 80s, with lows
generally in the low 60s NW to upper 60s SE. Ahead of the front,
PWATs should range from 1.5 NW to 1.8 east and SE. MUCAPE will
generally peak in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range, with effective shear in
the 20-30 kts range Mon aft/eve. The SPC has most of central NC in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather Mon, with the primary threat of
isolated severe wind gusts during the afternoon/early evening,
generally along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Troughing over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced with a piece of
northern stream energy by Tues morning which will act to kick a
compact shortwave and lingering mid-level moisture from the Mid-
Atlantic into the Northeast by Tues morning. Convergent mid-level
flow on the backside of the longwave trough will direct subsidence
and a pocket of very dry mid-level air over through the Ohio Valley
and into Mid-Atlantic by Wed morning; persisting through much of the
work week. At the surface this translates to an unseasonably strong
area of pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley slowly sliding
east over and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridging through the
southern Appalachians and into the Southeast into the weekend.

The result of the above pattern will be a prolonged period of fall-
like conditions through the work week with highs in the low/mid 80s
(equivalent of mid-September) and lows falling into the low 60s
(equivalent to mid/late September). Given the clear skies overnight
and surface high pressure nearly overhead favoring strong
radiational cooling overnight, low/mid 50s may be possible in the
Piedmont outside of urban areas. Some isolated shower/storm activity
may be possible towards the coast edging into Sampson County by the
weekend as an inverted trough axis hedges near the coast and mid 60s
dew points return to the far southeast, but other than that, expect
dry conditions through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 AM Monday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with the
exceptions of possible brief MVFR fog in the east between 09z and
13z- and a chance of brief MVFR thunderstorms this afternoon between
18z and 23z.

Looking beyond 00z Mon, the chance for scattered showers and storms
will continue through mid evening Mon, with dry weather expected
after midnight as a cold front pushes to our east. VFR conditions
should then return tonight and dominate through Fri under incoming
high pressure.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield