757
FXUS65 KPUB 042018
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall, very nice July 4th evening expected for fireworks
  displays.

- A storm or two on the Palmer and Raton late this
  afternoon/early evening; a slightly better chance of storms
  over the far eastern plains late tonight/early AM hours,
  especially far southeast corner.

- A few more storms possible tomorrow afternoon along
  mtns/plains interface tomorrow afternoon.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the
  mountains through the long term period.

- Temperatures will remain around seasonal values for much of
  the long term period, with a cool down Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Currently...

Except for a few clouds over NW Teller County, skies were clear
across the region. Temperatures were in the 70s to around 80 over
the plains and valleys.

Rest of today into tonight...

Overall a very nice weather pattern is likely for a large majority,
if not the entire region, during this period. Only chance of storms
and slight chance at that) will be across the mtns/plains interface
with the best chance of the Palmer Divide region and Raton Mesa
region. Temps this evening will generally be around 70 during the
firework shows. Winds are expected to be light.

Later tonight, there will be a slightly better chance of some
showers and tstorms over the eastern plains, especially over the far
southeast corner. However, most of the remainder of the region will
remain dry with temps falling into the 50s most of plains and 40s
valleys.

Tomorrow

If you enjoyed this afternoon, you will likely enjoy tomorrow
afternoon just as much. Max temps tomorrow will be at or maybe a
degree or two cooler than todays max temps. The only concern is
thunderstorms activity will likely be a bit more (low end scattered)
over the greater mountains/plains interface region as we will be a
bit more unstable and storms may be a tad stronger. For now SPC does
not have the interface outlooked, but would not be too surprised if
we see a marginal risk along the greater I-25 corridor region for
tomorrow afternoon.

As for the interior, it will be dry, along with the far eastern
plains during the afternoon time period. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Friday Night - Wednesday: A relatively consistent pattern will be in
place through the long term period. Ensemble model guidance is in
good agreement that northwest flow will be in place over south
central and southeastern Colorado as a ridge of high pressure sits
across the western US and troughing persist across parts of the
central and eastern US. Overall, forcing will be on the weaker side
with this pattern, though with that said, modest orographic forcing
is anticipated each day, along with periods of heightened forcing as
shortwaves drift over the region. Given the more meager forcing,
drier conditions are expected for much the area. The exception to
this will be isolated to widely scattered afternoon rain showers and
thunderstorms mostly over the mountains each day given diurnal
instability and the orographics in place - showers spilling out
across the mountain valleys will also be possible. With that all
said, a cold front is anticipated to drop southward during the
Sunday timeframe, which will help in increasing precipitation
chances for more of south central and southeastern Colorado. Looking
at temperatures, most days will hover around seasonal values for
early July. The exception to this will be Sunday and Monday, as
cooler air fills in behind the aforementioned cold front, dropping
the area to below seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KPUB. Winds will be diurnally driven
through the fcst period. Some modest gusty winds will occur in
the afternoon and early evening time period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH