407
FXUS61 KPHI 010432
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1232 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will clear our region overnight. High pressure
builds in Monday through Tuesday before moving offshore
Wednesday. A surface trough arrives on Thursday as a cold front
may approach from the northwest Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1230 AM, the cold front has shifted east and southeast of
I-95 with a wind shift to the northwest. A significant lowering
of the few points is occurring in the wake of this front with
areas farther to the northwest having dew points down into the
50s. The last of the convection is working off the coast of far
southeast New Jersey and southern Delaware. Adjusted the PoPs to
show a much faster decrease over the next hour or so. Made some
adjustments to the dew points as well based on the latest
observations and trends.

A much drier airmass will continue to spread across our region
overnight. With a fairly tight pressure gradient developing
over the area and decent cold air advection, northwest winds
will pick up to around 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph prior to
sunrise before increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25
mph Monday morning. Winds diminish Monday afternoon.

Much more pleasant weather for Monday with below normal highs
in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain the dominant feature through Wednesday.
The mostly pleasant and tranquil conditions will continue
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will be near normal,
mainly in the low-mid 80s. However, with dew points forecast to
remain in the 50s, another pleasant day looks to be on tap.
Lows Tuesday night will be a touch warmer as well, mainly in the
low-mid 60s.

As the high shifts further east on Wednesday, expect low level
southerly return flow to usher in a modest warming trend, but
conditions should remain quite pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...Approaching trough and cold front will be responsible
for rain chances through the long term. Few changes from the
previous forecast.

Synoptic Overview...A Canadian upper-level trough will push the
ridge southward some Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a
trough arrives Thursday with a cold front approaching from the
northwest Friday.

Thursday (Independence Day) through Sunday...Southerly flow
becomes more established leading to hot and humid conditions
through the weekend. The influence of a Canadian upper-level
trough will start to approach during Thursday, however the
timing and amplitude of this trough is less certain. As of now,
the main trough is more toward the Midwest and therefore the
associated cold front may be slow to approach our area late in
the week. There may be a pre- frontal trough in our vicinity
Thursday into Friday and this may provide enough focus amid a
destabilizing air mass to initiate some convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR. Northwesterly winds around 10 knots. Moderate
confidence.

Monday...VFR. Northwesterly winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to
25 kt, diminishing by later in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.

Thursday and Friday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances
(25-35%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to shift to the NW behind the passing cold
front overnight. Winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to
25 kt on all waters late tonight through midday Monday. SCA in
effect from 09Z to 17Z Monday to cover this.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Winds and seas are expected to be below
SCA criteria.

Rip Currents...

Monday...Behind a cold front, N winds will average 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph in the morning, then will diminish to 10
to 15 mph in the afternoon. Due to these elevated winds and
breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore. For
Delaware Beaches, winds will back slightly to the NW and will be
a bit lighter. This results in a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents for Delaware Beaches.

On Tuesday, much more tranquil conditions with E to NE winds 5
to 10 mph. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware
Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM EDT
     this afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Gorse/Johnson
NEAR TERM...Gorse/MPS
SHORT TERM...AKL/Johnson
LONG TERM...AKL/Gorse/Johnson
AVIATION...Gorse/Johnson/MPS
MARINE...Johnson/MPS