137
FXUS61 KPBZ 020456
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog is possible early this morning, then mostly dry conditions
are expected today outside of a stray shower. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon, with dry weather
for the Fourth and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Early morning expected
- Mostly dry conditions today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Skies have mostly cleared behind the exiting cold front. This
clearing, along with light wind and lingering boundary layer
moisture, will likely lead to at least patchy dense fog across
the area this morning. Fog should dissipate by 8-9am with
surface heating. Will continue to monitor the need for a Special
Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory.

Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected after the fog
mixes out. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two this afternoon
during peak heating, but the region looks to remain capped, and
the probability for any development is low.

After cooler temperatures Tuesday, area highs will be back in
the mid-80s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
- Temperatures a few degrees above average.

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A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track
southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very
dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures should continue to average a few degrees above
seasonable levels through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend
- Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday and Monday

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday and Saturday, a ridge is forecast to shift eastward resulting
in dry and warm weather across the Upper Ohio Valley region.

The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week,
with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to
periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances returning.

Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to be
approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the
region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or
above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. However, the chances of
Heat Advisory criteria remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of IFR fog are expected to develop through early morning
with clearing skies behind an exiting cold front, and low level
moisture in place. LIFR is most likely from DUJ-LBE-AGC-HLG-MGW,
where heavier amounts of rain fell on Tuesday, providing greater
low level moisture for fog.

THe fog should quickly dissipate between 12 and 13Z as mixing
begins, and as a ridge of surface high pressure builds in. The
CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered diurnal
cumulus layer should be in place through the day, dissipating in
the evening. High clouds are expected to begin to increase
Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Outlook...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
with a Thursday cold front. A lack of available moisture with
the front will likely be a limiting factor in storm development.
VFR is then expected through Sunday as high pressure moves
across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...WM/Lupo
LONG TERM...WM/Lupo
AVIATION...WM