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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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098 FXUS63 KPAH 012127 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 427 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potentially dangerous heat and humidity levels will return to the forecast Wednesday...and possibly continue for parts of the area into Thursday (Independence Day). - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast at times from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Some of the storms could be severe Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will also be possible. - Drier, less humid, and cooler weather is forecast for next weekend, with only a small chance of showers and thunderstorms forecast late Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 423 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Tonight through Tuesday...Excessively pleasant conditions will continue this afternoon through tonight. A rare July opportunity for open window weather is forecast tonight, with lows dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s. As surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes translates to the east, southerly flow will increase Tuesday, bringing warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, humidity levels will still be fairly low through the daytime hours, keeping heat index values in check. Dew point temperatures will rise overnight, though. Combined with increasing cloud cover, low temperatures Tuesday night will stay in the lower to middle 70s. Wednesday through Friday...A transition to a more unsettled weather pattern will begin late Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week. This will be due to a cold front approaching the region from the northwest then stalling across the heart the region, which will allow for the development of potentially several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Before the storms develop late on Wednesday, hot and very humid conditions will return to the region as very strong heat and moisture advection commences. This will allow high temperatures to reach the lower to middle 90s on Wednesday. Combined with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, widespread heat index values of 105-110F+ are forecast Wednesday afternoon. This would be firmly in the Heat Advisory range, and one will likely be needed if nothing changes in the current forecast. Ahead of the cold front`s arrival, very strong destabilization will occur. With bulk shear values increasing along the frontal boundary, initiation of organized storms will occur late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. At this time, the storms look to fire along and north of I-64 and move to the south and east. As it stands, SPC has much of southern IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY outlooked with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms extends further south and west to the MO/AR and KY/TN borders. At this time, damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm clusters and lines looks to be the main threat, though some large hail will be possible with storms that initially develop. For Independence Day on Thursday into Friday, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain in the forecast as additional rounds of precipitation develop along the frontal boundary. With PWAT and specific humidity values rising into the 95-99th percentiles via at 01/00z NAEFS guidance, there will be plenty of moisture to produce heavy rain. Training storms along the frontal boundary will also result in the potential for corridors of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, especially near and north of I-64. Latest WPC guidance shows a broad brush of 2-4" from Perryville, MO, to Carbondale, IL, to Mount Carmel, IL. Rainfall amounts taper down to 0.5-1.0" southward towards the AR/TN borders. Temperatures on Independence Day Thursday and Friday will be dependent on rain and cloud cover. Right now, temperatures look to reach the lower 90s in most areas on Independence Day, with triple digit heat index values still likely for many areas. Temperatures will cool slightly on Friday, but still reach the upper 80s in most areas. As frontal boundary moves south of the area, less humid air will gradually filter into the region Friday night. Saturday and Sunday...A return to drier and more comfortable temperature and humidity levels is in the forecast for next weekend. High temperatures look to reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees both days, but dew point temperatures look to stay in the 60s, which will keep the heat index values from getting too outrageous. A small chance of showers returns to the forecast late Sunday night as our next disturbance approaches from the northwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 423 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Surface high pressure will move east from the Great Lakes to New England. In response, winds will veer and return flow southerlies will commence again starting tmrw. Satellite and time/height cross sections suggest the dry air in the lower half of the column remains strong for another package, so just some occasional upper ridge topping mid to high level SCT-BKN bases are expected. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$