442
FXUS64 KOUN 051805
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
105 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Just a quick update - Areas of rain and some storms will continue
to slowly shift south and southeast across the area this
afternoon. Have adjusted PoPs to show this trend. The rain and
cloud cover has also led to some cooler temperatures, especially
across some portions of the fa where temperatures are currently in
the 60s and 70s. With rain and clouds lingering this afternoon,
these locations will likely struggle to reach forecast highs so
have lowered highs across portions of the area for this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

One round of storms winding down across southern Oklahoma and north
Texas this evening. Already have seen the next area of storms
developing across western Oklahoma early this morning, well ahead of
what the latest CAMs would have suggested. This activity is expected
to continue to expand across portions of central and western
Oklahoma through the morning before gradually shifting south during
the day. Main impacts with this activity as instability is rather
limited, will be some isolated heavy rainfall as PWATs look to
remain near 2 inches.

Otherwise, a nice cool down is expected behind the front with most
of the area topping out in the mid/upper 80s Friday afternoon with
light/moderate northeast wind and lingering cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Will be on the periphery of precip chances as we go through the day
Saturday. Rain chances increase Saturday night in the northwest as
some weak waa develops with the aid of llj along with small
shortwave trough moving southeast out of the central Rockies. A few
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across northwest
Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening.

Rain chances really ramp up as we go into Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night as another shortwave trough moves through the central
plains and associated surface cold front sweeps south into the area.
Models depict upscale growth of the convection into possible MCS
that will translate south across the area Sunday night. PWATs
continue to remain abnormally high and heavy rainfall will again be
a concern along with the strongest storms capable of producing some
strong wind gusts.

With respect to temperatures over the weekend, daytime temps will be
a few degrees warmer than what will occur Friday, but still remain
near normal.

Now for Monday in the wake of the precip and cool front, temps will
cool back down with most of the area back into the 80s Monday
afternoon. With front lingering across the south and another
shortwave moving through the Plains, could see some lingering rain
into Monday afternoon across the south.

As we go into the middle of the week will have to pay attention to
possibility of at least some residual moisture from the remnants of
Beryl making there was northward through Texas toward Oklahoma.

Models for now are keeping some precip chances into the latter part
of next week, along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures as
longer wave trough remain across the central part of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR ceilings, although some will be low VFR, this TAF period.
Rain and some storms will continue to gradually shift south and
southeast this afternoon affecting a few of the TAF sites. Winds
will be variable and shifting this afternoon and tonight before
become S to SE Saturday. Clouds are expected to clear out of much
of the area tonight into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  66  90  70 /  80  10   0  10
Hobart OK         79  66  91  71 /  80  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  78  68  92  71 /  70  10  10  10
Gage OK           84  62  90  67 /  20  10  10  40
Ponca City OK     88  65  92  68 /  10   0   0  20
Durant OK         88  69  92  70 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25