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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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785 FXUS66 KOTX 132139 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 239 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains of eastern Washington this afternoon. A break in showers and thunderstorms comes Wednesday before more unsettled conditions return late Thursday into the weekend. Daytime temperatures will be near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tomorrow: Isolated thunderstorms have started to develop in the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and northern mountains. SPC mesoanalysis shows an uncapped 100-500 J/kg of SBCAPE with very weak (less than 20 kt) effective bulk shear in the aforementioned locations. Weak terrain based lift and shear has promoted weaker single cell convection this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours. Burn scars are being monitored for potential flash flooding. Breezy Cascade gap winds will develop this evening at Wenatchee elevating fire weather concerns despite higher relative humidities. Tomorrow: Tomorrow will be mild and dry as a shortwave ridge noses into the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will be in the 80s in the lowlands. /Butler Thursday through Monday: A shortwave trough is on track to move up from Oregon into Washington and Idaho Thursday afternoon into Friday, prompting a return of overcast skies, showers, and thunderstorms. The Cascade Crest, Southeast Washington, and the South and Central Idaho Panhandle will be the first areas impacted by storms, then coverage will expand over the majority of Eastern Washington and Idaho by Friday morning. Model guidance is showing a 35 to 50 percent chance of measurable rainfall during the Thursday- Friday timeframe for most locations. Heading into Friday evening, a larger trough will develop just offshore while a ridge simultaneously develops to our east over the Rockies. As a result, the Inland Northwest will be caught in a stream of southwesterly flow between the two. Warm, moist air flowing in out of the southwest will keep us in an active, unstable pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Models have not yet reached a consensus on the exact placement of the offshore trough over the weekend and into next week. How far offshore the trough develops will determine how warm our temperatures get. Around 60 percent of models are predicting the trough will be closer to shore which would keep our temperatures near to slightly below average. Average daytime highs are in the mid 80s this time of year. The remaining 40 percent of models show the trough developing further offshore which would allow the ridge to our east to have a greater influence on our temperatures. This means temperatures would likely be a few degrees above average in the 90s. More on that as the weekend gets closer. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Expecting another round of weak thunderstorms in far north-central and northeast Washington and north Idaho between 18-03Z today. Breezy northwest winds will pick up at the Wenatchee Airport (KEAT) this evening after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 53 83 56 88 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 30 40 Coeur d`Alene 54 81 54 86 58 78 / 0 0 0 10 40 50 Pullman 50 80 50 82 52 78 / 10 0 0 10 40 40 Lewiston 60 88 62 90 65 86 / 10 0 0 10 50 30 Colville 48 84 45 88 48 79 / 10 0 0 0 20 50 Sandpoint 54 80 51 84 55 76 / 0 0 0 10 40 60 Kellogg 55 79 58 84 59 75 / 20 0 0 10 50 60 Moses Lake 54 85 55 89 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Wenatchee 62 86 63 89 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 20 20 Omak 59 89 60 93 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 10 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$