133
FXUS66 KOTX 060529
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1029 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (10-15%) afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
  the northern Mtns and N ID this afternoon and early evening.

- Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue into at least
  Wednesday.

- Increased winds and elevated fire weather conditions
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The progressive shortwave that supported light showers across the
area this morning continues to move off to our east this afternoon.
Meanwhile, another progressive wave is moving through this afternoon
and evening and will try to utilize the what`s left of the moisture
in concert with instability (100-300 j/kg) to support a few showers
and storms (10-15% chance) across the northern Mtns and N ID.

Attention then turns to the upper air pattern as ridging will
slowly start to build tomorrow and amplify as it moves overhead
Monday and Tuesday before breaking down Wednesday. As the area
trends warmer and dryer, heat and fire will remain the chief
concerns. There is good agreement when looking at ensemble
clusters of the ridge dominating Monday and Tuesday and quickly
becoming zonal Wednesday. Heat wise, moderate to major heatRisk
is possible Monday through Wednesday. Temperature spread is
quite low Monday and Tuesday of 3-5 degrees, however there is
increased uncertainty on Wednesday where the spread increases to
7-10 degrees across much of the area. The highest heat
confidence lies across greater Columbia Basin where spread is
the least (1-3 degrees) with Tuesday max temperatures
approaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

Wind gusts Tuesday include a 25-75th percentile range of 25-35 mph
across portions of central WA while the area of elevated winds
expands east across E WA and N ID on Wednesday. The heat and wind
potential in concert with relative humidities falling to the teens
Mon-Wed will result in elevated (Mon/Tue), to potentially critical
fire conditions (Wed). The GEFS hot, dry, windy (HDWI) indices
continue to increase with nearly all members at or above the
90th percentile for Tuesday with some uncertainty still showing
up Wednesday though now ranging between the 75th and 95th HDWI
percentiles. This period will continue to be monitored closely
as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Bands of midlevel clouds are passing through the
region at this hour, otherwise VFR skies are expected through
the TAF period with generally light winds. Main winds near 10kts
will be locally around KEAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy low
clouds or fog is possible between Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry
where heavier rains fell into Saturday. Current observations
indicate Sandpoint is near saturation. Any fog will burn off
quickly Sunday morning./sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        80  56  85  56  92  60 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  55  85  56  90  60 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        76  49  82  51  89  57 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       85  60  91  61  98  65 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       79  47  85  48  90  51 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      72  51  81  49  88  55 /  70  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        72  57  80  58  87  63 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     87  55  90  57  95  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  60  90  63  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           86  56  89  58  95  60 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$