759
FXUS66 KOTX 170459
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper
90s and triple digit temperatures. On Wednesday there is chance of
thunderstorms across the region containing little to no rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Wednesday: The upper level ridge has shifted slightly
east allowing warm southwest flow to intrude over the Inland
Northwest. It will continue the above normal temperatures for the
foreseeable future. A shortwave will swing up the west side of
the ridge on Wednesday. It has enough instability and moisture to
bring the threat of thunderstorms across the region for the
afternoon and evening hours. Lightning will raise concerns for new
fire starts across the landscape. Short term models are also
showing an outflow wave pushing off the Cascades and spreading the
convection across the Northern Columbia Basin. The lightning
potential is lower with this line. The main concern will be the
localized gusty winds spreading any new fire starts rapidly. Smoke
will continue to impact air quality near area wildfires. Highs
for the day will be in the upper 90s and low triple digits. Lows
will be in the 60s.

Thursday through Monday: The ridge will rebound to the west
behind Wednesdays wave and keep the above normal temperatures.
Temperatures will peak over the weekend with highs reaching into
the upper 90s and low triple digits. Overnight lows will be the
60s to low 70s. Ensembles are in good agreement of the ridge
pattern over the Pacific Northwest lasting through the weekend.
The models begin to shift the ridge Eastward late Monday and
Tuesday as a trough begins to press into the region. It will bring
slightly cooler temps but also breezy winds. We will have to keep
an eye out for the pattern change as it could bring some fire
weather concerns. Smoke will continue to impact the areas near any
wildfires. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Skies will be mainly cloud-free overnight and through
the morning. Downslope winds along the East Slopes of the
Cascades will push smoke from the Pioneer Fire down Lake Chelan
into the Chelan and Methow Valley airports. Some minor visibility
reductions will also occur at the Lewiston airport with localized
smoke from Oregon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
With the exception of smoke near the Pioneer Fire and in Lewiston,
there is high confidence in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64 100  65  99  65  97 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  63  97  63  96 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Pullman        60  95  59  95  60  93 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       68 104  70 105  71 104 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       55  98  55  97  55  97 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  95  60  95  57  95 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Kellogg        67  96  67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     62 102  62 102  62  99 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74 101  71 102  69  99 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Omak           67 103  66 105  67 103 /   0  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan County-
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning from noon Wednesday to midnight PDT Wednesday
     night for Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area
     (Zone 708)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to midnight PDT Wednesday
     night for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of
     North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades
     (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains
     (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706).

&&

$$