![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
144 FXUS61 KOKX 142334 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 734 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in place through Thursday night, with a weak disturbance moving through during the day Thursday. High pressure remains off the northeast and Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Friday night as a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. The frontal system continues to approach through the weekend with its associated cold front moving through on Monday. A weak trough lingers on Tuesday. High pressure builds in on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms have left the area and dry conditions are expected the rest of the night. Upper level low remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes tonight, with it`s trough axis off shore while weakening upper level ridge moves east from the Great Lakes region. Low tonight will be near normal, with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s across the normally colder outlying areas, to the upper 60s into the NYC metro area. Temperatures may be colder than forecast in the outlying areas with decent conditions for radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low will continue to spin over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. A surface trough moving through may provide enough lift along with the instability aloft (cold pool associated with the upper low) to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon as diurnal heating helps to destabilize the atmosphere. Target area seems to be southeastern CT and the Twin Forks of Long Island, as they will be closer to the low, but anywhere across the forecast area may see a shower or thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms will once again quickly diminish as the sun sets and the loss of heating stabilizes the atmosphere. Otherwise, temperatures will trend a bit above normal on Thursday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the 60s and 70. Outlying areas will once again be cooler with clouds diminishing right after sunset and winds continuing to be light and variable overnight with lack of a pressure gradient. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term period forecast remains fairly consistent from the previous forecast as a trough remains over the western north Atlantic Friday and slowly moves east Friday night into Saturday. This will allow a slow moving frontal system to slowly approach Friday night through Sunday and move into the region Monday. The slow motion of the low is due to an amplifying upper ridge to the east and the interaction and passage of Hurricane Ernesto well to the east. Please refer to the NHC for official forecasts on Ernesto. The upper trough will remain over the region Monday and Tuesday, and weaken Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures have trended upward a couple of degrees for Friday, especially across the interior, however, dew points remain in the lower 60s, so heat indices will be near the air temperatures. Humidity increases Friday night and through the weekend with temperatures near or slightly below normal as rain and clouds will be across the region. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak high pressure generally remains in control through the TAF period. VFR, with dry conditions the rest of the night. Mainly a light NW flow tonight or light and VRB. Some terminals may start out tonight with a light E flow until around 02z. Winds will be light and NW tomorrow as well, with afternoon sea breezes expected. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday afternoon, with the potential for more coverage than there was today. Confidence in location is too low, so have kept out of the TAF for now. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... NYC terminals may start out tonight with an E flow before coming back around to a NW flow no later than 02z. AMD possible Thursday morning/afternoon for timing of sea breeze. Low potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Friday THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night and Friday: VFR. Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely with chance of tstms, especially in the afternoon/early evening, and especially from the NYC metros north and west. MVFR or lower conditions possible. Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind regime overall through Friday with sub-SCA levels. Winds and seas remain below SCA levels Friday. However, the combination of southerly winds with an approaching frontal system and increasing long period S to SE swells from Hurricane Ernesto during Friday into Saturday will build ocean seas to 5 to 6 feet Saturday, and 6 to 7 feet Sunday. Seas peak Sunday and subside Monday into Monday night. A small craft advisory will likely be needed on the ocean waters for Friday night through Monday night. Please refer to the NHC for official forecasts of Hurricane Ernesto. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through Friday. There is a chance of moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday with a slow moving frontal system. Possible impacts will be poor drainage and urban flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches through early this evening. The rip current risk will be increasing during Thursday to moderate, and continue to increase into Friday, reaching a high risk Friday afternoon. The increasing rip current risk is due to increasing incoming SE to S long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto. Please refer to NHC for official forecasts regarding Hurricane Ernesto. Minor coastal flooding may become possible early next week from Sunday through Tuesday as swells build and as astronomical tides increase due to the full moon on Monday the 19th. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...JP/MET SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JT MARINE...JP/MET HYDROLOGY...JP/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...