182
FXUS61 KOKX 291829
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
229 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control today and weaken on Monday. A warm
front then approaches Monday night and lifts through the region
during Tuesday. This will be followed by a cold front Tuesday
night. Weak high pressure will be in control mid week. A cold front
approaches and moves through late Thursday, followed by high pressure
returning Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front today, but the
front stalls close to the area before resuming a southward track
this evening. It should be a partly to mostly sunny day anyway,
probably filtered by some cirrus. Mostly clear and dry
conditions then continue tonight.

850mb temps progged at 17-18C along with a westerly flow should
allow for low 90s in parts of NYC and the urban corridor of NE NJ
and 85-90 for most other locations. Heat index values will however
be fairly close to ambient temperatures as dewpoints through the top
of the boundary layer are low enough for surface dewpoints to mix
out fairly easily during the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight 3-5
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
We`ll still be largely under the influence of high pressure during
Monday, but a shower or thunderstorm may sneak into NE NJ or the
city very late in the day. NBM looked good for the most part
regarding high temperatures for Monday, but a few minor local
adjustments were made. Models show dewpoints through the boundary
layer still low enough for surface dewpoints to mix out up until
winds shift onshore and boundary layer dewpoints rise in the
afternoon. Advisory thresholds for heat are however not expected to
be reached.

A warm front approaches Monday night and probably remains to our
south through the night. Isentropic and mid-level shortwave lift
pass through and interact with deepening moisture, increasing the
chances of showers as the night progresses. There`s enough CAPE
progged to keep in the mention of a thunderstorm.

The warm front then lifts through the forecast area during Tuesday
with the help of a low level jet, maintaining chances of a shower or
thunderstorm. A prefrontal trough then quickly follows it from the
west, followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Showers with some
thunderstorms are anticipated with the higher chances being during
the afternoon. Shear profiles are sufficient for strong to severe
thunderstorms, and there should be enough CAPE, but just how much
CAPE is a greater uncertainty as there could be plenty of cloud
cover for much of the day. So far it appears that the main threat as
usual will be winds, but there`s plenty of CAPE progged in the -10C
to -30C layer with some veering from the low to mid levels, so
cannot rule a threat of large hail. SPC has the entire area within a
marginal risk (5% chance) for severe weather.

Regarding the flooding potential on Tuesday, PWATS are modeled at
around 2.25 inches, which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal.
This would however be mitigated by the forward motion of cells with
the steering flow projected at 30-40kt. There are still indications
however that 850-500mb winds would be parallel to the horizontal
orientation of the greatest low-mid level moisture convergence,
increasing the chances of back-building and some training. Therefore
cannot rule out the threat of flash flooding. WPC currently has most
of the forecast area within a marginal threat (5% chance) of
excessive rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm chances then diminish
Tuesday night, probably exiting east by morning, as the cold front
moves through.

Went with NBM for high temperatures and dewpoints on Tuesday, but
temps could be a little too high if it remains mostly cloudy for
much of the day. Dewpoints will probably be in the lower to middle
70s with a SW flow and moisture pooling near the surface trough.
Heat indices could reach 1-day advisory thresholds for some spots
if NBM temps and dewpoints are realized.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key messages:

* Seasonably warm and humid Wednesday and Thursday

* Less humid for the 4th of July

Look for the typical summer air mass to be in place mid week. A cold
front is expected to approach Thursday and swing through Thursday
night. The front is expected to bring the chance of showers and
possibly some thunderstorms to the region. There remains some
uncertainty to the orientation and positioning of upper level energy
north of the region. This will ultimately determine how widespread
any shower and thunderstorm activity gets late Thursday.

Regardless of how unsettled the weather gets late Thursday, it
appears that this cold front will serve to lower humidity levels late
in the week for the 4th of July holiday. Into next weekend the
global NWP guidance is suggestive of mid and upper level height
rises and is suggestive of slightly warmer temperatures for the end
of the period. Overall utilized the NBM guidance with only slight
adjustments overall with PoP late Thursday and towards the tail end
of the period into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak front and/or surface trough will remain across the
coastal terminals this afternoon before pushing south this
evening. High pressure will then build in from the NW tonight
into Monday.

VFR prevails.

The CT terminals, KJFK, and KISP will do battle this afternoon
as the seabreeze attempts to work in against a W-WNW flow.
Expect any seabreeze to have a west component this afternoon,
but KJFK may for a time go more southerly. Elsewhere, winds will
be W-WNW around 10 kt with a few gusts possible at 15-18kt.

The winds will then quickly lighten this evening and veer around
to the N/NE at less than 5 kt. In some cases, winds will just
go light and variable. Winds will then become SSE at 10 kt or
less on Monday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds at KJFK may fluctuate from WSW-S this afternoon.

There is low-medium to chance for the seabreeze to make to KLGA
toward 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: VFR during the day. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms at night. MVFR or lower possible at night as a
warm front approaches from the south.

Tuesday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR or lower
possible, especially afternoon and evening. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt
day into early eve.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible afternoon into early eve
with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early Tuesday. Winds
and seas then increase ahead of a cold front, which is expected
to pass through during Tuesday night. SCA conditions are
probable on the ocean Tuesday afternoon and night.

Sub advisory conditions return Wednesday into Wednesday night with
mainly 3 to 4 ft ocean seas. Despite a cold front moving through
late Thursday sub advisory conditions are expected to remain in
place with the winds switching to the NW behind the front Thursday
night into Friday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Monday. A half
inch to inch of rain is currently forecast for Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Locally higher amounts are possible, and there is
at least a low chance for flash flooding to occur. Minor poor
drainage flooding would be more likely. There are no significant
hydrologic concerns at this time from Wednesday through late
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development across the
ocean beaches today and Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...