268
FXUS64 KOHX 232337
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index
  values reach into the triple digits each day.

- Rain chances will remain low this week with just isolated
  thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening. Localized heavy
  downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will accompany
  any storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

There has been a notable lack in convective activity this
afternoon as compared to yesterday. The atmosphere across Middle
Tennessee is somewhat drier today, owing to a surface and upper
high situated to our immediate east that is in the process of
retrograding westward. So there is evidently more subsidence
across the region today that is really helping to suppress our
convective potential. Temperatures warmed considerably today -- up
to 96 degrees at BNA and CKV and 89 degrees at CSV. We will
continue to see temperatures similar to today`s (or even a degree
or two warmer) through Thursday, with temperatures gradually
backing off beginning on Friday, just as our PoPs begin to
increase. In the near-term, we expect very low rain chances to
persist through maybe Thursday, then the high pressure will start
to break down by week`s end, allowing for additional moisture and
increasing rain and storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The on-going heat wave will continue with most areas experiencing
peak temps and heat index values Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps
the next couple of days will be mostly in the mid 90s with pockets
of upper 90s. Even the Plateau will be toasty with highs in the
lower 90s. Heat index values will top 105 for many spots west of
the Plateau, so our Heat Advisory has been expanded and extended
through the work week.

The strengthening high pressure center overhead for Tuesday and
Wednesday will also suppress most of the pop-up thunderstorm
activity we have been seeing. Coverage today will be around 20
percent, mainly over our western counties. Coverage of storms for
Tuesday and Wednesday will be less than 10 percent. For locations
that do have storms, plenty of cape and moisture in the air will
lead to storms with very heavy downpours, gusty winds around 40
mph and frequent lightning. Weak wind fields will result in slow
or no movement to the storms, so spots that have storms may pick
up an inch or 2 of rain with very localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Dangerous heat will continue Thursday and Friday, but we will see
the first stages of pattern change with weakening of the upper ridge
and increasing moisture depth. Highs temps will begin trending
downward as daily thunderstorm coverage gradually increases.

The trend of lessening heat and increasing coverage of showers
and storms will continue through the weekend and into next week.
Rain coverage will climb into the "likely" category by the start
of July as a frontal zone approaches and possibly stalls out over
or near the area. Although we will move out of heat danger
levels, it will remain quite warm and very humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period.
However, there is a low chance for patchy fog overnight, but
forecaster confidence was too low to include any impacts at this
time. Otherwise, winds will generally be light and variable.
Another round of pop-up thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
afternoon, however, chances for direct impacts to TAF sites is too
low for mentions at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  97  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
Clarksville    75  95  75  95 /  10  10   0  10
Crossville     70  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia       73  95  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
Cookeville     72  93  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
Jamestown      70  93  71  92 /  10  10   0  20
Lawrenceburg   73  95  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   73  97  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
Waverly        73  94  74  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements