575
FXUS64 KOHX 111608
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1108 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Hard to believe it`s mid August outside with such comfortable
temperatures in the 70s and low humidity thanks to dewpoints in
the 50s. Highs will only rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s this
afternoon thanks to this amazing airmass, with lows dropping down
into the very pleasant upper 50s and low 60s tonight - which is
only around 5-10 degrees above record lows for tomorrow. Monday
looks only slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s, but
considerable cloud cover will make it feel not quite as warm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Unfortunately all good things much come to an end, and warmer and
more humid conditions will return for the rest of the week as an
upper level ridge builds across the southern Plains and Gulf
Coast. Thankfully, nothing extreme is expected as far as
temperatures are concerned, with highs returning to around 90 by
Tuesday and reaching the low or possibly mid 90s for the rest of
the week. This is only a few degrees above normal for this time
of year, and well below record levels in the mid to upper 100s.

Low level moisture will also gradually return from the Gulf
as southerly/westerly flow develops in the lower troposphere.
However, northwest flow will remain in place aloft across Middle
Tennessee as we stay on the northeast side of the ridge. With
frequent shortwave troughs passing by, we will see low to medium
rain chances each day for the rest of the forecast period.
Isolated to low chance pops first return on Tuesday, with slightly
higher pops on Wednesday and Thursday. Best chance for showers
and storms looks to be Friday as ample instability develops, PWATs
rise well above 2 inches, and a stout shortwave trough axis moves
across the region. Could even see a few strong storms on Friday
if forecast soundings pan out as currently depicted. Rain chances
continue but lower over the weekend as a cold front pushes into
the midstate and stalls, but it`s unclear if the boundary will
make it through the area or not - which would make for a much
drier forecast than currently shown.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR will continue at all Middle Tn sites through the taf period. A
weak disturbance will bring patchy mid and high clouds this
morning. North winds will continue, mostly less than 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    83  60  84  65 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       86  62  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     79  59  81  63 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      79  57  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   84  61  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   85  62  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        84  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....13