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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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575 FXUS64 KOHX 111608 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1108 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Hard to believe it`s mid August outside with such comfortable temperatures in the 70s and low humidity thanks to dewpoints in the 50s. Highs will only rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon thanks to this amazing airmass, with lows dropping down into the very pleasant upper 50s and low 60s tonight - which is only around 5-10 degrees above record lows for tomorrow. Monday looks only slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s, but considerable cloud cover will make it feel not quite as warm. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Unfortunately all good things much come to an end, and warmer and more humid conditions will return for the rest of the week as an upper level ridge builds across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. Thankfully, nothing extreme is expected as far as temperatures are concerned, with highs returning to around 90 by Tuesday and reaching the low or possibly mid 90s for the rest of the week. This is only a few degrees above normal for this time of year, and well below record levels in the mid to upper 100s. Low level moisture will also gradually return from the Gulf as southerly/westerly flow develops in the lower troposphere. However, northwest flow will remain in place aloft across Middle Tennessee as we stay on the northeast side of the ridge. With frequent shortwave troughs passing by, we will see low to medium rain chances each day for the rest of the forecast period. Isolated to low chance pops first return on Tuesday, with slightly higher pops on Wednesday and Thursday. Best chance for showers and storms looks to be Friday as ample instability develops, PWATs rise well above 2 inches, and a stout shortwave trough axis moves across the region. Could even see a few strong storms on Friday if forecast soundings pan out as currently depicted. Rain chances continue but lower over the weekend as a cold front pushes into the midstate and stalls, but it`s unclear if the boundary will make it through the area or not - which would make for a much drier forecast than currently shown. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR will continue at all Middle Tn sites through the taf period. A weak disturbance will bring patchy mid and high clouds this morning. North winds will continue, mostly less than 10KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 86 64 87 68 / 0 0 10 10 Clarksville 83 60 84 65 / 0 0 10 20 Crossville 81 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 86 62 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Cookeville 79 59 81 63 / 0 0 10 10 Jamestown 79 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 84 61 86 66 / 0 0 10 10 Murfreesboro 85 62 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Waverly 84 62 87 66 / 0 0 10 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....13