517
FXUS64 KOHX 021139
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Amazingly cool and comfortable night for early July across Middle
Tennessee this morning with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints
in the 50s. Despite the cool start, the heat and humidity will be
making a comeback today as an upper level ridge quickly builds
over the Tennessee Valley and Gulf moisture returns from the
south. Highs are anticipated to reach the low to mid 90s for most
of the midstate with dewpoints rising back into the 60s to around
70. Wednesday looks even hotter and more humid as the center of
the upper ridge settles just to our south, with highs in the mid
to upper 90s and dewpoints rising further into the low to mid
70s. This combo of heat and humidity will bring heat index
readings up into the 105-110 range during the day, and a Heat
Advisory will be needed for most of the midstate west of the
Plateau. Thankfully, a few showers and storms are anticipated to
pop up during the afternoon hours, which while isolated will help
cool a few areas down. Forecast soundings show ample CAPE in the
1500-2000 J/Kg range on Wednesday afternoon, so could even be a
strong or even marginally severe storm or two. SPC has
highlighted our northern counties in a marginal risk for
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Another very hot and humid day is anticipated for July 4th with
highs once again in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints remaining in
the 70s. This should once again bring much of the midstate into
the 105-110 heat index range during the day, and another Heat
Advisory will likely be needed. However, the upper ridge will
begin weakening on Thursday as a fairly strong upper low moves
into the northern Plains and Midwest. This will allow for higher
coverage, albeit still scattered,showers and storms during the
day which will keep temperatures a bit cooler than Wednesday.
Still appear most shower and storm activity will die down by
evening, before increasing again late Thursday night into Friday
as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Friday looks to be the wettest day this forecast period thanks to
the front, with latest NBM guidance showing likely to categorical
pops. The higher rain coverage will also keep temps down with
highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s. Rain chances will decrease
from north to south on Saturday as the front continues pushing
through the region, with Sunday currently looking slightly cooler
and dry. Much like yesterday, this brief cool dry period will be
shortlived as the heat and humidity returns early next week along
with increased shower and storm chances. However, latest 00Z
guidance keeps an upper trough in place over much of the central
and eastern US next week, which if it pans out would keep us less
hot and rainier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Clear skies and calm winds this morning at all sites. Winds will
gradually increase to around 10 knots out of the south later this
morning and remain that way for much of the period. Scattered cu
are expected to develop this afternoon, but conditions will
remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  77  98  78 /   0   0  20  20
Clarksville    93  75  95  76 /   0   0  30  30
Crossville     88  67  89  69 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       95  75  96  76 /   0   0  20  10
Cookeville     89  71  91  73 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      88  69  90  72 /   0   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   93  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  75  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        94  75  96  76 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Whitehead