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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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427 FXUS63 KOAX 172016 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures are expected with a small chance (30%) of showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm Sunday. - Another small chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. - Heating builds in late next week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 This forecast period is overall quiet and characterized by the best precipitation chances primarily focused to our west and a brief surge in airmass temperatures, allowing hot weather to temporarily return in due time. The 18z upper air analysis shows building high pressure from the desert southwest into the northern plains. To the east, low pressure is anchored over the Great Lakes, leaving our area in modest northwest flow. This pattern has allowed for instability showers to develop, and though isolated, could produce small hail and short-lived heavy rainfall through 21-22z. Tonight...Expect a dry evening with light winds under building high pressure aloft. Sunday...The opportunity for showers and thunderstorms has increased slightly from the previous forecast. As a weak shortwave traverses the area during the day, another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms, similar to today, could develop. Monday through Sunday...Thereafter remains a battle between instability to the west and rising mid-level heights. In general models agree with focusing the best precipitation chances to our west over central Nebraska. For eastern Nebraska and western Iowa there are slight precipitation chances Tuesday and into Thursday night. Finally, expect slowly rising temperatures through the week as heights build aloft. This could allow temperatures to return to the mid 90s by next weekend with heat index values pushing 100. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 There are no forecast concerns throughout this TAF period. Light winds will turn southerly tomorrow afternoon, but remain less than 10 knots. Expect VFR conditions at all three sites. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pearson AVIATION...Pearson