427
FXUS63 KOAX 172016
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures are expected with a small chance (30%)
  of showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm Sunday.

- Another small chance of showers and thunderstorms late
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Heating builds in late next week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This forecast period is overall quiet and characterized by
the best precipitation chances primarily focused to our west
and a brief surge in airmass temperatures, allowing hot weather
to temporarily return in due time.

The 18z upper air analysis shows building high pressure from the
desert southwest into the northern plains. To the east, low
pressure is anchored over the Great Lakes, leaving our area in modest
northwest flow. This pattern has allowed for instability showers
to develop, and though isolated, could produce small hail and
short-lived heavy rainfall through 21-22z.

Tonight...Expect a dry evening with light winds under building
high pressure aloft.

Sunday...The opportunity for showers and thunderstorms has
increased slightly from the previous forecast. As a weak
shortwave traverses the area during the day, another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms, similar to today, could
develop.

Monday through Sunday...Thereafter remains a battle between
instability to the west and rising mid-level heights. In general
models agree with focusing the best precipitation chances to our
west over central Nebraska. For eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa there are slight precipitation chances Tuesday and into Thursday
night. Finally, expect slowly rising temperatures through the
week as heights build aloft. This could allow temperatures to
return to the mid 90s by next weekend with heat index values
pushing 100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

There are no forecast concerns throughout this TAF period. Light
winds will turn southerly tomorrow afternoon, but remain less
than 10 knots. Expect VFR conditions at all three sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pearson
AVIATION...Pearson